Yesterday early morning, the Federal Reserve's meeting sent a very clear signal — inflation is indeed easing, but it's still far from the stage where rate cuts can be comfortably implemented. This doesn't mean rate cuts won't happen, but rather that they will come slowly, entirely dependent on subsequent economic data.

Recently, the government shutdown caused data gaps, and most committee members believe that after consecutive rate cuts, they need to see how the market reacts first. Essentially, this meeting is about applying brakes to the overly optimistic expectations from before — not a major positive, nor a significant negative; more like a normal realization of market expectations. In the short term, the market is likely to surge and then enter consolidation, with the risk of chasing highs not to be underestimated.

Someone asked if there will be a rate cut in January? Honestly, based on the few words from the meeting, the probability is basically zero. The Federal Reserve has not revealed any signals of a rate cut in January. If a rate cut were about to happen, their wording would definitely become more dovish, but this time, they are actually lowering expectations. Currently, the window for serious discussion about rate cuts is more likely to open after March.

On the technical side, the monthly candle closes tonight, and the market may surge once more. The 93500 level remains a key resistance point. At this price, I will firmly short. Despite the large market volatility, the strategy must be clear.