2026年别再把预测市场当成“博彩换皮”

One sentence: It’s not gambling, but a new type of financial infrastructure
The difference between prediction markets and gambling platforms lies in:

🧾 Different pricing mechanisms: order book matching, market-based pricing ≠ bookmaker-set odds, built-in house-edge.

📊 Different value: Prediction markets can generate probability data that can be referenced by media, institutions, and hedging strategies, not just entertainment.

👥 Different participants: information arbitrageurs, macro traders, and institutions vs emotional gamblers.

⚖ Different regulation: regulated by federal authorities (scalable, institutional) ≠ state-level gambling regulation (fragmented, high taxes), ownership determines the ceiling.

💸 The reason capital bets on prediction markets is not “gambling,” but because they can be incorporated into regulatory rules, alongside futures and options, as “event derivatives exchange(DCM)” infrastructure value.

This is not a product dispute, but a conflict over regulatory ownership and financial interests, and a struggle for pricing power. #Polymarket

（This content summarized by AI @mandywangETH）