2025-12-30 09:40:15

#数字资产市场动态 The recent viral news about MetaPlanet's huge losses has sparked a lot of panic, but from on-chain data, I see a different story.

Let's start with the facts: MetaPlanet was heavily leveraged when Bitcoin broke above $107,000, acquiring over 35,000 BTC in one go. Currently, with BTC retracing to $87,000, the paper loss is 18.75%, which translates to a $700 million wipeout in USD. That number sounds truly frightening.

But here’s the key point—institutions caught at high levels are actually revealing last year's FOMO mentality. However, on-chain data tells a different story: recent exchange BTC balances have been steadily decreasing, with nearly 20,000 BTC withdrawn in a week. This indicates that large holders are quietly accumulating, not engaging in large-scale selling. Long-term holder addresses are also increasing, showing their conviction is stronger than you might think.

From a macro perspective, it’s also worth noting: the Federal Reserve has hinted at potential rate cuts, and the US dollar is under pressure. This is directly positive for risk assets like Bitcoin. In the short term, panic is inevitable—after all, institutional paper losses might trigger retail investors to follow suit and sell off—but the on-chain indicators I monitor show that selling pressure isn’t as intense as the news suggests. In fact, bottom-fishing addresses are quietly active, and smart money has already started to position.

Here’s my take: the market will be volatile in the short term. BTC might test support around $85,000 again, but the probability of a crash is nearly zero. The current bull market story isn’t over; every pullback is a window to buy. On-chain data has already pointed the way—after forming a bottom around $85,000, the next target is near $120,000.

Don’t be led by a single news story. Institutional losses don’t mean the market lacks momentum; sometimes, they are just a sign of a shakeout. Trading tests your restraint against human nature. When public opinion screams risk, the data often has already turned. Stay steady, and witness the market’s next move.

$ETH

BTC1.67%

ETH1.95%

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NFTragedy

· 6h ago

Really, every time this kind of news comes out, retail investors are scared out of their wits. In fact, smart money has already been accumulating. Exchange coin outflows and increased long-term holdings are clearer signals than MetaPlanet's unrealized losses. The time to pick up bargains around 85,000 is here again. Don't follow the trend and cut losses. Just want to ask those still shouting about a crash—do they really believe in on-chain data, or are they just looking for an excuse to escape? With interest rate cut expectations in place, dollar depreciation is a direct positive for BTC. Why are there still people bearish?

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NFT_Therapy

· 6h ago

700 million unrealized losses sound incredible, but on-chain data is the real truth. --- MetaPlanet's recent move as a bag-holder has clearly exposed the FOMO disease among institutions, haha. --- Exchanges have outflowed 20,000 BTC? Smart money is quietly eating up, retail investors are still trembling while watching the news. --- Every time such panic news comes out, I think of this saying—when everyone is shouting about a crash, the money has already quietly turned away. --- Is the 85,000 support level pointing to 120,000? I don't know if it can reach there, but I'm holding steady. --- The Fed's rate cut is more interesting than MetaPlanet's unrealized losses. --- Honestly, retail investors who are scared out by the news are the real bag-holders. --- On-chain indicators vs. public opinion, the latter always loses.

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GhostWalletSleuth

· 6h ago

On-chain data vs news headlines, they are always two different worlds. Retail investors are always scared out of the market. Smart money has already started accumulating. Are you still trembling while reading the news? This correction is a gift from heaven for entry points. If you wait until 120,000, you'll only have yourself to blame. MetaPlanet losing money doesn't mean the market has no hope; in fact, it's the best signal for a shakeout. The 85,000 mark is a barrier. If you can't break through it, don't scare yourself. Every panic is someone laughing while buying at the bottom. Which side are you on?

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BottomMisser

· 6h ago

Big players are quietly accumulating, while retail investors are still debating the news. The difference is so big.

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NoStopLossNut

· 6h ago

On-chain data vs. panic sentiment, this has always been the core confrontation in this game. Why do retail investors always get led by the news? Is the 8.5 support stable? That's the key, everything else is just empty talk. Institutional investors hoarding without withdrawing—that signal is clear enough. Institutions losing money is just a shakeout? Just listen, don’t take it seriously.

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AllInAlice

· 6h ago

Hey, wait a minute, 700 million just went down the drain? But to be honest, on-chain data is really telling a story. I'm also watching the smart money that’s bottom-fishing this wave. --- MetaPlanet’s FOMO is indeed a loss, but are the big players really accumulating? Then I need to re-examine the support at 85,000. --- The expectation of interest rate cuts caused the dollar to weaken. BTC might really take off then, but I’m a bit worried about the short-term volatility and the repeated pullbacks by traders following the trend. --- On-chain data points to a target of 120,000? Sounds good, but during this bottoming phase, I need to hold back and avoid cutting losses. --- Institutional unrealized losses might actually be a sign of a shakeout? Alright, I’ll take this as a signal light. Just stay steady and keep holding.

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