Latest Bitcoin Market Analysis: Bearish Sentiment Dominates as Expectations for Year-End Rally Diminish

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Chinese Analysis Firm Reveals: What’s the Latest Outlook for Bitcoin? Will There Be a Rally Before the New Year? Original Link: https://cryptonews.net/news/bitcoin/32203866/ According to recent market analysis, expectations for a strong bullish breakout in Bitcoin (BTC) by the end of the year are quite low within the investor community.

Macro researchers have argued that market sentiment is sharply divided and the short-term outlook remains cautious. A strong bearish segment argues that BTC has undergone structural changes since spot Bitcoin ETF options went live in late November 2024. This view suggests that Bitcoin is failing to generate upward momentum during US trading hours and is generally performing weakly, with potential for increased volatility around January 6th.

Key observations from the analysis include:

• Weak Performance: Since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETF options, BTC has become one of the weakest performing assets globally in terms of both absolute return and risk-adjusted return
• Limited Monthly Gains: No monthly increases exceeding 15% have been recorded, with only around 10% gains over a two-month period
• Trading Pattern Issues: Sharp declines occur in the first two hours after US markets open, followed by prolonged stagnation; Asian session pricing remains generally weak
• Selling Pressure: US investors tend to quickly sell off gains, reducing cryptocurrency market attractiveness compared to traditional financial markets that offer similar volatility with FDIC protection

The analysis indicates that passive fund flows are primarily supporting traditional markets, while passive selling pressure and peak liquidations are prominent on the BTC side. The shift in custody preferences from direct BTC holdings to packaged products like spot Bitcoin ETFs also raises long-term concerns regarding network security and proof-of-work systems.

On the daily timeframe, the technical structure remains bearish, with most investors skeptical about a “major breakout” materializing before year-end.