Dragonfly Partner's Major Prediction: By the end of 2026, BTC will break through the $150,000 mark

According to the latest market data from Gate, the price of BTC on December 30, 2025, hovers around $87,331. After experiencing year-end market volatility, the entire crypto industry is looking for new directions.

At this moment, Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner of the well-known crypto venture capital firm Dragonfly, released a comprehensive forecast for 2026, with the most notable point being: Bitcoin will break through $150,000 before the end of 2026, but its dominance in the entire cryptocurrency market will decline.

01 Market Pulse: Current Price and Market Sentiment

As of December 30, 2025, based on data from the Gate platform, the real-time price of BTC is $87,305.

This price has fallen about 30% from the historical high of $126,000 set in October 2025. Overall market sentiment remains in the “extreme fear” zone.

From a market capitalization perspective, as of December 25, 2025, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies is approximately $2.92 trillion, still below the all-time peak in 2021. After transitioning from the “great震 era” to the “mainstream era” in 2025, investor sentiment has become more cautious.

The market in 2025 has shown clear institutional characteristics. Data indicates that institutional channels such as ETFs saw a net inflow of $44.2 billion in 2024-2025, holding 5.7%-7.4% of circulating Bitcoin, marking the first time Bitcoin’s entry has been monopolized by ETFs.

02 Core Forecast: Divergence Between BTC Price and Market Share

Haseeb Qureshi’s core forecast includes two seemingly contradictory but inherently unified trends: Bitcoin’s price will surpass $150,000, but its market share will decline.

Looking back at 2025, Bitcoin reached a historical high of $126,000 in October but then experienced a significant correction. Qureshi’s prediction implies that Bitcoin will increase by over 70% from its current level.

This forecast aligns with market cycle theory. Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak within 18-24 months after halving events. If the halving effect in 2024 continues, 2026 will be right within this time window.

Regarding the decline in market share, Qureshi believes that although Bitcoin’s price will rise, funds will flow into other crypto assets, leading to a relative weakening of Bitcoin’s dominance. This judgment echoes the pattern seen in past bull cycles where “Bitcoin leads the rally, altcoins explode.”

03 Ecosystem Evolution: Public Chain Competition and Stablecoin Expansion

In the public chain sector, Qureshi makes a clear judgment: despite recent hype around fintech blockchains (such as Tempo, Arc, and Robinhood Chain), their performance will fall short of expectations.

In contrast, Ethereum and Solana are expected to outperform, with top developers continuing to choose neutral infrastructure public chains.

This forecast is supported by another Dragonfly partner, Rob Hadick. In an interview with CNBC, he stated: “I’m not a technical investor but a long-term investor. We still hold a strong and positive outlook for 2026.”

Regarding the stablecoin market, Qureshi predicts that the supply of stablecoins will increase by about 60% in 2026, with USD stablecoins maintaining a share above 99%, and USDT’s dominance slightly decreasing to around 55%. This growth will be mainly driven by global payment applications and institutional demand.

04 Regulation and Institutions: Policy Framework and Capital Flows

The evolution of the regulatory environment will be a key variable in the 2026 market. Qureshi forecasts that the “Clarity” bill will become law, but only after significant negotiations.

Looking back at 2025, the “GENIUS Act,” regarded as the fundamental law for the crypto industry, officially took effect on July 18. It is the first federal regulatory framework in U.S. history targeting stablecoins and digital assets, clearing legal obstacles for banks to participate in crypto custody.

In terms of equity investment, Qureshi predicts that by the end of 2026, equity investments will account for over 20% of total DeFi investments. This trend reflects further integration of traditional financial instruments with DeFi, as institutional capital seeks more complex risk exposure and yield strategies.

05 Emerging Sectors: Limitations of Prediction Markets and AI Applications

In niche sectors, Qureshi emphasizes the potential and limitations of prediction markets. He predicts rapid development, but 90% of prediction market products will be completely ignored and gradually disappear before the end of the year.

This view is corroborated by another Dragonfly partner, Rob Hadick. Using Polymarket as an example, he pointed out that its monthly trading volume has grown from $50 million in early 2024 to about $4 billion, with only 35% related to sports.

This indicates that prediction markets are expanding into broader financial applications such as insurance and weather risk hedging. Hadick even cited Jeff Sprecher, CEO of ICE, who believes prediction markets “could become as large as ICE itself.”

Regarding AI applications in crypto, Qureshi remains cautious. He believes that in 2026, AI’s main use cases in crypto will still be limited to software engineering and security, with other areas still in prototype stages.

06 Giants Entering the Market: Tech Companies’ Strategies and Wallet Wars

A notable prediction is that Qureshi believes a major tech company (Google, Facebook, Apple, etc.) will launch or acquire a crypto wallet in 2026.

This prediction is further elaborated by BlockTempo, which states that the entry of tech giants “is expected to bring hundreds of millions of new users to cryptocurrency.”

As the gateway for users to access the digital asset world, crypto wallets with their large user bases and robust identity verification systems could significantly lower barriers to entry and promote mass adoption.

Meanwhile, Qureshi also predicts that three large Perp DEXs will capture 90% of the market share in this sector, with other projects fighting for only 10%. This concentration trend is common in mature markets and reflects the natural law of market dominance by leading projects.

07 Investment Perspective: How to Position in a Fragmented Market

For investors, understanding the logic behind these forecasts is more important than simply focusing on price figures.

The prediction that Bitcoin’s price will break through $150,000 while its market share declines actually reflects a more mature and diversified crypto market forming. As institutional funds continue to flow in, market depth and liquidity improve, creating more space for various crypto assets to develop.

From an asset allocation perspective, investors may consider:

• Maintaining Bitcoin as a core holding while appropriately allocating to mainstream public chain assets like Ethereum and Solana
• Paying attention to opportunities arising from stablecoin growth, especially beyond USDT to other compliant stablecoins
• Cautiously evaluating emerging fintech public chains, which, despite high attention, may face challenges in user and developer adoption

It is worth noting that Qureshi predicts most fintech companies’ launch of L1 blockchains will “fail to attract enough users or network activity to challenge Ethereum and Solana or other native networks.”

Future Outlook

For ordinary investors, the 2026 crypto market will no longer be a simple “rise and fall game,” but a complex chessboard requiring fine-tuned choices among Bitcoin, mainstream public chains, stablecoins, and emerging sectors.

If the prediction of Bitcoin surpassing $150,000 comes true, it would mean over 70% upside from current prices. But equally important, as the market matures, capital will no longer flock blindly to Bitcoin but will be allocated more rationally based on different asset characteristics.

As another Dragonfly partner, Rob Hadick, said: “We are not ideological about holding cryptocurrencies but investing in the innovative future of financial markets.” Perhaps, this de-ideologized, application- and innovation-focused perspective is the right attitude to embrace the crypto market in 2026.