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Hedge funds are extremely bearish on the Japanese Yen:
Leveraged funds held ~85,000 contracts of net short positions on the Yen in the week ending December 14th, the 2nd-highest since July 2024.
This marks the 2nd consecutive week of heavily bearish positioning, following ~92,000 net short contracts recorded in the week ending December 9th.
Short positions have gradually accumulated since July as the US Dollar has strengthened against the yen.
This comes as the gap between US and Japanese rates remains large, at ~3.0 percentage points, limiting support for the currency despite the Bank of Japan's rate hikes.
Additionally, real interest rates in Japan remain deeply negative, as inflation continues to exceed policy rates, discouraging investors from holding yen-denominated assets.
A similar situation was observed last year, when the USD/JPY currency pair rose above 160, prompting the Ministry of Finance to intervene in July 2024 to defend the domestic currency.
The yen is back under pressure