The last trading day of 2025, Bitcoin did not stage the expected surge. Instead, it repeatedly fluctuated within a relatively narrow range of $84,000 to $90,000, currently testing back and forth around $86,500 to $87,500. The recent market behavior has been particularly interesting—low trading volume, small price swings, and an unclear direction, typical of a "holiday market" vibe. In simple terms, the market has not yet made a firm decision; there are forces pushing prices down, but also hidden potential for an upward move.

**Facing Resistance, Bitcoin Struggles to Move Up**

This inability to break higher is backed by several clear "barriers."

First is the $90,000 level. It has become a psychological and technical double defense line—being breached at least six times this year, but each time pushed back. Additionally, in the past week, there has been a net outflow of about $780 million from the US spot Bitcoin ETF, which directly suppresses the rebound potential.

Second, the overall trend of major global asset classes is also unfriendly. Hot sectors like tech stocks and precious metals have recently been adjusting, with risk appetite clearly cooling down. As a typical "high beta" asset (sensitive and volatile), Bitcoin naturally cannot escape this broad cooling.

Another invisible pressure comes from policy concerns. News about the Trump administration possibly adjusting the Federal Reserve leadership has caused market worries about liquidity in the coming months. Many funds are choosing to withdraw and wait until the end of the year, preferring to avoid risks even if it means missing opportunities.

**But there may also be a turning point brewing**

Interestingly, if you look at the on-chain real holdings data, the pessimistic sentiment has not spread to long-term investors. The "Holder Net Position Change" indicator has recently resumed an accumulation pattern, indicating that large holders and institutional investors are buying on dips—they are voting with real money. This sign often suggests that a bottom has been relatively established.

From a macro perspective, the possibilities of a Fed rate cut cycle, institutional allocation needs, and Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge asset are still at play. These long-term factors continue to influence the market. Short-term volatility is just market sentiment fluctuating; the real driver of direction remains the fundamentals.

Overall, Bitcoin is currently at a crossroads. Support below (institutional accumulation, liquidity bottom), resistance above (technical hurdles, capital outflows). How it will move depends on the signals the market gives.