Dragonfly predicts Bitcoin will hit $150,000 in 2026, but market share is declining

Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb predicts that by 2026, Bitcoin will break through $150,000, but market share will decline, indicating a performance period for altcoins. He believes Ethereum and Solana will outperform expectations, while fintech public chains will underperform. The DeFi perpetual contract market will be dominated by three platforms accounting for 90% of the market share, stablecoin supply will grow by 60%, and the CLARITY Act will officially become law.

The Market Share Paradox Behind $150,000 Bitcoin

Dragonfly’s forecast for Bitcoin in 2026 is highly optimistic, expecting it to surpass the $150,000 mark by the end of the year, a 36% increase from the current price of around $110,000. However, more notably, Haseeb also points out that Bitcoin’s market dominance will decrease in 2026. This seemingly contradictory prediction actually reflects the maturing trend of the crypto market: Bitcoin’s role as a store of value continues to strengthen, but as application scenarios expand within other blockchain ecosystems, capital will be more broadly dispersed into the altcoin space.

This phenomenon has occurred multiple times during past bull cycles. Both the 2017 and 2021 bull markets experienced phases where Bitcoin led the rally, followed by altcoins catching up. When Bitcoin reaches new highs and enters consolidation, investors often seek altcoins with higher growth potential. If Bitcoin truly reaches $150,000 in 2026, the market may have already priced in its store-of-value properties, and Layer-1 and DeFi projects with real use cases will attract more attention.

Haseeb’s forecast suggests that 2026 may usher in a typical “altcoin season.” When Bitcoin’s market share declines, it means that the proportion of other crypto assets in the total market cap is rising. This rotation effect is usually driven by institutional investors and retail funds flowing from Bitcoin into mainstream Layer-1s like Ethereum and Solana, further spreading into DeFi, AI, and gaming tokens.

The Victory of Neutrality in Blockchain Infrastructure

Dragonfly remains cautious about the performance of fintech public chains. Haseeb predicts that blockchain projects launched by major fintech companies such as Tempo, Arc, and Robinhood Chain will have lower-than-expected metrics in daily active addresses, stablecoin volume, and RWA (Real World Assets). In contrast, Ethereum and Solana will outperform expectations, with top developers continuing to build on neutral infrastructure chains.

This forecast reveals a core value conflict within the blockchain industry. Blockchain projects launched by fintech companies often carry clear commercial purposes and control, which can quickly onboard existing user bases but lack decentralization and neutrality. Developers tend to prefer public chains without single entities controlling them, as these platforms offer greater innovation freedom and long-term sustainability. The reason Ethereum and Solana continue to attract top developers is due to their governance structures and open ecosystems.

Haseeb also predicts that a major tech company (Google, Facebook, Apple, etc.) will launch or acquire a crypto wallet by 2026. This will be a landmark event for tech giants deeply entering the crypto space, potentially providing hundreds of millions of users with easy access to crypto assets. More Fortune 100 companies will launch blockchain initiatives, although these companies are increasingly concentrated in banking and fintech sectors. Projects like Avalanche, OP Stack, Orbit, and ZK Stack will become the preferred tech stacks for enterprise-grade blockchains.

Key Predictions for the Blockchain Landscape in 2026

Fintech chains underperform expectations: Tempo, Arc, Robinhood Chain, and similar projects will fall short in daily active addresses and stablecoin volume.

Neutral public chains continue to lead: Ethereum and Solana will outperform expectations, with top developers consistently choosing neutral infrastructure.

Tech giants enter the space: Google, Facebook, or Apple will launch or acquire crypto wallets, paving the way for mainstream adoption.

Centralization Trends in DeFi and Stablecoins

Dragonfly predicts that by 2026, the DeFi market will experience significant centralization. The perpetual contract DEX market share will consolidate into a “HBO-like” three-platform structure (with approximately 40%/30%/20% market share), while the remaining 10% will be split among numerous smaller participants. This “winner-takes-all” pattern reflects the network effects of DeFi protocols: liquidity attracts more traders, which in turn attracts more liquidity providers, ultimately forming an insurmountable moat.

The trading volume of equity perpetual contracts will surge, accounting for over 20% of total DeFi perpetual contract volume by year-end. This indicates DeFi is expanding into core areas of traditional finance, allowing users to trade perpetual contracts on stocks like Tesla and Apple on-chain, enjoying 24/7 trading and higher leverage. Compared to CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) / AMM (Automated Market Maker), RFQ (Request for Quote) trading volume will grow significantly, for both spot and perpetual contracts.

The stablecoin sector will also show strong growth. Haseeb forecasts stablecoin supply will increase by about 60% in 2026, with USD stablecoins still accounting for over 99%. USDT’s dominance will slightly decline to around 55%, meaning USDC and other stablecoins will capture more market share. In 2026, stablecoin-backed credit cards will grow by 1000%, becoming the main way for stablecoins to enter and expand into emerging markets, with Rain emerging as the biggest winner.

Regulatory and Market Prediction Polarization

The CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026 after significant price negotiations and bargaining, though crypto insiders will feel some regret. After Democrats win the House, a series of hearings will be held to discuss all crypto-related matters involving Trump/WLFI. Related transactions will be subpoenaed, with Trump insisting he was never involved and knew nothing about it. Anyone who signed foolish agreements will be publicly exposed.

Market development is expected to proceed rapidly, with major legal disputes over sports betting regulation and federal priorities emerging, but no significant progress is anticipated in 2026, so the status quo will persist. Polymarket continues to lead the trend, regarded as a fashionable and smart tool, gradually capturing market share from Robinhood and other sports betting companies. Other platforms will imitate by launching prediction markets, but 90% of these products will be ignored and gradually disappear before year-end. By 2026, almost all demand will come directly from front-end platforms like Polymarket, Robinhood, and Kalshi.

Realistic Expectations and Long-term Potential of AI Applications

The main AI applications in crypto remain limited to software engineering and security, with other areas still in prototype stages. Spam bots on social platforms have not been effectively addressed, and by 2026, we will mostly have to accept various drawbacks brought by AI. Wallet automation remains low, and AI agents will not yet “pay each other” or engage in meaningful consumption.

However, due to the exponential effect of coding agents, more small teams (fewer than 10 people) will be able to deliver scalable products. 2026 is dubbed the “Year of Agent Entrepreneurship,” which will have a huge impact on crypto startups. AI will be used for cyber attack and defense, with defensive AI integrated into CI/CD pipelines, improving overall security posture and reducing total hacker attack volume.