2025-12-30 01:25:39

The prediction market landscape just shifted. Kalshi has surpassed Polymarket in weekly trading volume—$2.3B versus $1.2B. More notably, this marks Kalshi's first time closing a week above $2B threshold.

But here's what matters: this isn't about superior prediction algorithms. It comes down to two things—liquidity depth and operational infrastructure.

The catalyst? Two structural advantages accelerated this climb. First, TRON integration opened the floodgates. Cheap deposits via USDT/TRX pairs removed friction for users. Transaction costs plummeted. Capital flowed in easier.

Second, sports became the volume engine. Unlike political or economic prediction markets that attract niche participants, sports betting scaled the user base fast. Broader appeal, higher turnover, sustained liquidity.

The takeaway: in prediction markets, raw prediction quality takes a backseat to execution basics. Rails matter. Deposit channels matter. User accessibility matters. Kalshi nailed all three.

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NFTRegretter

· 01-01 21:52

Basically, if you have money and connections, you can win. No matter how advanced the algorithm is, it has to be playable by people.

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MEVVictimAlliance

· 01-01 04:16

Basically, it's about infrastructure and user experience crushing algorithms, just like trading coins... --- Kalshi really won this round with low barriers, and TRON's integration was a stroke of genius. --- The popularity of sports betting makes sense; political prediction markets are too niche. --- Still the same point: when making products, treat users like fools; the simpler, the more profitable. --- Liquidity is king; this will never change in this circle. --- It seems the next hot trend is which exchange makes deposits the smoothest. --- But don't be too pessimistic about Polymarket; a week is still early. --- Infrastructure has indeed been overlooked; everyone only cares about whether they can make money. --- Kalshi truly brought prediction markets from the geek circle into the hands of ordinary people, and that's the key.

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