I've witnessed this pattern repeat across multiple asset classes—metals, agricultural commodities, livestock futures, and yes, cryptocurrencies. The cycle follows a predictable rhythm.

When markets enter late-stage bull runs, newer participants who entered near the peaks often make a psychological commitment: they convince themselves they'll never sell, that holding through any drawdown is the way forward. Some even declare they'd rather watch their positions crater to zero than capitulate.

But here's what actually happens in nearly every case—the market hits a local bottom, and those conviction-holders are gone. They either panic-sold before that low or got shaken out at the worst possible moment.

The alt coin market has shown this behavior countless times. Understanding these cycles isn't just about price action; it's about recognizing when euphoria peaks and reality reasserts itself. The traders who survive aren't the ones with the strongest convictions—they're the ones adaptable enough to adjust their thesis when conditions change.