Bond market volatility experiences the largest decline in nearly 16 years, as the Federal Reserve's rate cuts take effect

LiquidityWitch · 2025-12-29T19:26:14+00:00

【BiTu】The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut actions are indeed taking effect. The ICE BofA MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility, has fallen to the level of 59, hitting a new low since October 2024. Even more astonishing, this index has declined from 99 at the end of the year, and is on track to record the largest annual decline since data began in 1988—second only to the sharp plunge during the 2009 financial crisis.In other words, the tension in the bond market is noticeably easing. As the risk of recession is effectively alleviated, investors' expected volatility in the bond market has significantly decreased, and the overall market rhythm has also calmed considerably. This stability may not necessarily be bad news for risk assets.

LiquidityWitch

2025-12-29 19:26:14

【比推】美联储这波降息动作确实在起作用。衡量债券市场波动率的ICE BofA MOVE指数已经跌到了59这个水平，创下自2024年10月以来的新低。更夸张的是，这个指数从年底的99一路下滑，眼看就要录得自1988年有数据以来最大的年度跌幅——仅次于2009年那波金融危机大暴跌。

换句话说，债市的紧张情绪在明显缓解。随着经济衰退风险被有效缓解，投资者对债券市场的预期波动率大幅回落，整个市场节奏也跟着平复了不少。这种稳定态势对风险资产未必是坏消息。

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DevChive

· 2h ago

99 drops to 59? That's a bit of an outrageous decline, feels like the bond market has really recovered. Are risk assets about to take off? Or are they just going to harvest more retail investors again? How long can this stability last? No one knows. The Federal Reserve is really ruthless; their moves have this effect.

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GasFeeBeggar

· 2h ago

The Federal Reserve's current move is indeed significant; the bond market has stabilized, dropping directly from 99 to 59—an incredible magnitude. Is it another spring for risk assets? It always feels like this kind of "stability" comes too quickly. The largest decline since 1988, almost to the point of a V-shaped rebound—things are getting a bit tense. If the bond market stops trembling, should those betting on a recession start closing their positions? Can the 59 level hold? It feels like we're about to enter another phase of volatility.

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PonziDetector

· 2h ago

Damn, it's the Federal Reserve's usual trick again. The MOVE index drops to 59? I feel like they're just setting a trap for everyone. The bond market has eased, but can risk assets really rise? I remain skeptical; history has fooled us this way before. From 99 to 59, it looks satisfying, but I always feel something's off. Cutting rates to the bottom, but in the end, inflation rebounds, and they have to hike again—just a cycle. Stability? That word is really daring to use. The next black swan is just around the corner waiting for us.

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SandwichDetector

· 3h ago

Alright, the Federal Reserve's hand really is impressive... The bond market dropped from 99 to 59, and the decline is indeed fierce. Wait, is it a good thing that things are stabilizing? I always feel like risk assets are about to be cut. The 2009 wave wasn't this intense; next time there's a big crash, don't say I didn't warn you. The index has been sliding since the end of the year; I should have seen something coming. Basically, it means money is about to start flowing around again.

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CryptoSurvivor

· 3h ago

99 drops to 59, this round of rate cuts really has some substance, the bond market finally calmed down Wait, stabilizing is good for risk assets? Why do I still feel uneasy... This trick was played last year in 2009 too, will history really repeat itself? This round of rate cuts, to put it simply, is like giving the market a sedative, who knows how long it can last The MOVE index plunging so much feels like it's brewing something, what do you all think? Bond market stabilizing = risk assets taking off? It might just turn into a mess again, haha From 99 to 59, it looks great, but I always feel this is the calm before the storm Rate cuts have been fully implemented, what’s next? Does the central bank have any tricks up its sleeve?

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