Could gold face a global shortage? This judgment comes from a recent warning by Dutch commodities expert Karel Mercks. He believes that gold is reenacting the story of silver — transforming from a safe-haven asset into a truly scarce asset.

The trigger for this logic is quite clear. Suppose the S&P 500 index stagnates or continues to struggle over the next year—what will happen? A large amount of capital will seek new outlets, and precious metals will naturally become the first choice. The role of gold will be upgraded accordingly, no longer just an "insurance policy," but an evolved scarce asset competing for funds.

The market has already shown signs. Some institutions are quietly increasing their holdings of gold ETFs and physical gold, trading activity in mining stocks is rising steadily, and the volume of derivatives in precious metals is also climbing. The driving force behind this comes from concerns over Federal Reserve policies and the dollar’s creditworthiness — investors are re-evaluating gold’s value.

This is not just a transfer of funds, but a shift in mindset. When traditional markets lose their appeal, the shine of precious metals becomes even more dazzling. While luxury items like diamonds remain a choice for value storage, gold is breaking out of its niche, transforming from a "hedging tool" into "hard currency."

Most importantly, if a shortage truly occurs, combined with a massive influx of capital, the price elasticity of gold could far exceed current market expectations. History always follows patterns — during every period of stock market confusion, gold tends to shine brightly. This time, the variables may be even greater than imagined.