Recently, while watching the market, I suddenly had a feeling — the longer the sideways consolidation lasts, the more brutal the subsequent direction choice becomes.

The performance of Bitcoin over the past week made me recall the dark days of the bottoming process in 2023. Currently, the market is fiercely contested between bulls and bears, and the $98,000 level has become the critical line of life and death for this round of行情.

Having experienced two complete bull-bear cycles myself and continuously tracking real-time data, I want to share some recent thoughts today on how Bitcoin can approach the target of $130,000 by early 2026. A preemptive note: the analysis below reflects only personal opinions. Just listen for ideas, don’t treat it as an investment guide.

**First, the conclusion**

I believe that the $98,000 level is unlikely to be the final bottom of this adjustment. The true bottom pressure should be in the $86,000 to $92,000 range. But from a medium-term trend perspective, I remain optimistic about the market — I give over a 60% probability that it will surge to $130,000 in the first half of 2026.

**Probability distribution of three possible paths**

Based on my analysis framework, there are roughly three possible rhythms for Bitcoin moving upward from here:

**Scenario 1: Violent surge (20% probability)**
This scenario requires super bullish catalysts, such as the Federal Reserve suddenly announcing a more aggressive rate cut policy, or major institutions like BlackRock experiencing a single-day massive net inflow into spot ETFs. If such a situation occurs, Bitcoin could directly break through $130,000, and the whole process might only take 2 to 3 weeks. The key point is whether daily trading volume can break through a 20% increase.

**Scenario 2: Bottoming and oscillation (50% probability)**
This is the most likely trend in my view. The $98,000 support can hold effectively, then the price will repeatedly test the bottom within the $90,000 to $100,000 range, gradually accumulating bullish momentum. The process might extend to 1 or 2 months, but ultimately, it can approach the $130,000 target step by step. This rhythm is more "normal" and aligns with typical market laws.

**Scenario 3: Breakdown and decline (30% probability)**
A risk scenario. If the $95,000 support line is broken, the price could continue to decline toward the $86,000 zone. The timeframe is hard to determine, as it depends on how fast the decline is and how strong the bears’ killing power is.

**My trading approach**

At this moment, it’s mainly about waiting for signals. If Bitcoin can stabilize above $98,000 within a week, and trading volume cooperates accordingly, I tend to think the probability of bottoming and oscillation is increasing, and I might consider gradually adding positions. Conversely, if it falls below $95,000, then I need to be alert to the possibility of Scenario 3 — at this point, defense is more important than offense.

Sideways consolidation can be really frustrating, but this process is precisely when large funds build positions. Only by enduring this phase can we see the true direction.