No one can stay on the sidelines; when the avalanche comes, every snowflake is falling.

The situation is far more severe than it appears on the surface. Recently, some things have been quietly changing, and various data points are pointing to the same upcoming node.

The bond market is not as stable as it seems. The MOVE index (a measure of bond market volatility) has indeed fallen recently, but that’s just a deep breath, not a sign of calm. The long end of the Treasury curve remains the biggest source of pressure since the beginning of the year.

Foreign investors’ appetite has also waned. China is gradually reducing its holdings, and although Japan’s holdings are still sizable, they are extremely sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations and policy signals. In the past, foreign buyers would step back, and U.S. debt issuance could absorb that. Now? There’s simply no room left.

Japan’s issues can no longer be just background noise. The yen’s persistent weakness continues to push the central bank into action. Every adjustment triggers a rebalancing of global arbitrage trades and shifts in sovereign debt flows. Arbitrage unwinding never stays quiet in just one place—the pressure will eventually transmit, and U.S. Treasuries are often the next landing point.

Connecting these lines, the picture becomes very clear:

Real yields remain high, the term premium shows no signs of collapsing, liquidity continues to tighten, and risks are already being priced into sovereign financing.

The stock market can continue its slow climb, gold can hit new highs, and commodity futures can follow suit, but none of these can hide what’s accumulating beneath the surface. When GDP data materializes or recession news floods in, the asset re-pricing will have already been completed.

2026 is not simply a year of economic slowdown risk. It’s more like the year when sovereign financing pressures finally erupt. By then, central banks will have no choice but to step back into the fire.

The timeline still aligns, and the pressure is beginning to build up from familiar places. Keep an eye on bond movements; other assets will follow suit.