2025-12-29 16:20:48

Panic is sweeping the market, but I see something completely different.

When the Extreme Fear Index drops to 25, short-term holders collectively surrender, and Bitcoin repeatedly fluctuates around $90,000, most people are still watching the falling candlesticks, while the real turning point has already emerged. Having analyzed markets for many years, I am especially sensitive to these hidden signals.

This time, I want to break down three key signals to help you see through the upcoming "Santa Claus Rally" — it may be late, but it will definitely come.

**Signal 1: The True Meaning of the Fed's "Dovish Hawk"**

At the Fed decision in mid-month, the market's focus was entirely on the dot plot — only one rate cut expected by 2026, which briefly pushed Bitcoin above $90,000. But this is just surface-level.

The real game-changer is this: Quantitative tightening officially comes to an end. Even more intense, the Fed has launched a "Reserve Management Purchase" plan, injecting $40 billion of short-term government bond liquidity into the market each month. In other words, this is hidden QE.

Looking at historical data, liquidity turning points are always leading indicators of rebounds in the crypto market. The Fed's balance sheet has started to rebound from a low of $6.5 trillion, and this purchase plan is expected to release trillions of dollars in liquidity by 2026.

Liquidity drives everything — this has always been my core logic. Now, this tide is turning.

BTC-0.42%

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blocksnark

· 5h ago

The narrative of invisible QE has been heard too many times... Can it really save the market? --- I agree with the logic of the liquidity turning point, but the real question is how much further below 90k can it still fall? --- Here comes the Santa Claus rally again, do you really believe in this? --- The Federal Reserve's recent actions are indeed a bit sneaky, but retail investors are probably the ones most likely to get caught off guard. --- $40 billion injection and you're already excited? I think we might see new lows. --- Such a detailed breakdown, yet it's still the old tune of liquidity-driven moves. --- Is the fear index at 25 truly the bottom this time? It feels like there's still room to go lower.

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WalletAnxietyPatient

· 5h ago

Invisible QE is here, this time we really need to carefully observe the liquidity turning point --- Same old rhetoric, the real picture will only be clear next year --- 90000 repeatedly pulled back and forth, I wonder if it looks more like a trap to induce buying --- If it were truly that sensitive, we'd have achieved financial freedom long ago haha --- Santa Claus market... by this logic, it should come every year --- Reserve management purchases = invisible QE, I need to ponder this logic --- The panic index at 25 is indeed quite low, but signals of a bottom... many people talk about it, few get it right --- A trillion dollars in liquidity released, how can retail investors get a share? --- Not buying and making money instead, that’s probably the biggest signal --- As the voices about liquidity shifting increase, who is right? Let's see the results

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CryptoGoldmine

· 5h ago

I understand this round of hidden QE. The shift in liquidity is a buy signal. From the perspective of the computing power network growth curve, now is indeed a good time to buy the dip.

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RugResistant

· 6h ago

ngl the "hidden QE" angle is interesting but that $400B monthly injection claim needs actual verification... red flags detected on the specificity without receipts tbh

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