At noon, I saw ZBT surge from 0.11 to 0.20 in one go, an increase of nearly 60%. My first reaction was that such a rapid rise could only mean two things: either the main force is making their final move, or retail investors are collectively celebrating in unison. Looking back now, the subsequent trend has actually provided the answer.

The price has now fallen back to 0.17, and signs of decline are becoming more obvious. I noticed that it tried several times to break above 0.20 but failed, which clearly indicates that there is someone selling off above.

From a technical perspective, the signals are indeed not very friendly. The KDJ has entered the oversold zone, RSI has fallen below the 50 midline, the short-term moving averages MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all in a bearish alignment, and OBV has also broken below its moving average. All these suggest one message: selling pressure is gradually strengthening.

Interestingly, there are some contradictions in the details. The trading volume has increased by 48%, and the price remains above the EMA120. What does this imply? There is significant disagreement in the market — on one side, the main force is aggressively selling off, while on the other, some are bottom-fishing and absorbing the sell orders.

The key now is the 0.17 support level. If it cannot hold, the next target is the previous low at 0.10. If it can hold, a oversold rebound might occur, but the rebound is likely limited to around 0.19, with limited space.

Ultimately, it’s a matter of betting on a probability. But no matter how you bet, one thing must be done: set stop-losses in advance. Risk management is always the top priority.