ZEC's recent performance has indeed been eye-catching. From market data, the price has broken through the $538 mark, with a considerable increase. However, multiple technical signals are flashing warning signs.

The RSI indicator has already surged to 84, which is in the overbought territory. The price has also sharply broken above the upper Bollinger Band, a technical deviation that is not common in historical data. Interestingly, despite the significant surge in trading volume, on-chain data shows an intriguing phenomenon—large holders and whales seem to be acting out of sync. Some analysts even suggest that these big funds might be quietly building short positions, preparing to arbitrage at the right moment.

The essence of this market movement is worth deep reflection. On the surface, it looks like a short-term squeeze or capital pump driven by FOMO, rather than the start of a bull market built on solid market consensus. The characteristics are: rapid, relatively quiet, and extreme in technical indicators. When retail investors chase the high, those with keen senses might already be planning their exit strategies and timing.

Here are some practical perspectives:

First, the unrealized gains on the screen are just numbers until they are actually realized. The initial purpose of pumping the price is often to generate hype and attract more buying from new investors, not to ensure everyone profits.

Second, chasing high at such extreme overbought levels and heightened emotions usually carries downside risks far exceeding expected gains. From a probabilistic standpoint, this is not a profitable trade.

For those already holding positions, it might be wise to consider active position management—such as setting trailing stop-loss orders or gradually reducing holdings in batches. This way, you can participate in the upside while locking in profits. If you are still on the sidelines, rather than rushing to buy in, it’s better to patiently wait for technical adjustments or healthier consolidation patterns before building a position.

This market scene essentially involves long and short funds exchanging chips and engaging in a game of chess. Amidst all the noise and excitement, maintaining calm judgment and disciplined execution is often more valuable than chasing sensational gains.