2025-12-29 14:25:54

With only a few days left in 2025, this Bitcoin rally has been full of twists and turns.

A couple of days ago during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin surged to $90,200, briefly triggering over $102M in liquidations, sparking market excitement — the total market cap also rebounded above $3 trillion. But just like having half a bowl of noodles interrupted, the rebound couldn't sustain, and it’s now back down around $88,000. Liquidity tends to be thin at year-end, making these fluctuations even more intense.

Honestly, the current situation is a bit tense. If BTC wants to avoid ending the year in the red in the remaining days, it needs to rise over 6.24% to surpass $93,374 — a significant drop from the $126K high at the start of the year, down over 30%. That’s no small feat.

However, from a technical perspective, there are some interesting signs. The December monthly candle might form a hammer pattern, which in technical analysis suggests strong support below. The overall structure still looks bullish, and key support zones haven’t been broken.

Even more interesting is the fear index, now oscillating between 20-24, indicating extreme fear levels. Historically, this range has often been an excellent window for bottom-fishing. Retail interest is quite cold, but institutional voices are somewhat divided — Coinbase’s recent institutional report discusses the dominance of perpetual futures and how stablecoin growth is reshaping market dynamics. Analysts are quite optimistic about a rebound in the new year. There are signs of capital rotation back into crypto from precious metals.

The current logic might be this: testing the $85K-$90K range repeatedly, with thin liquidity amplifying volatility, but the bullish momentum hasn’t disappeared. The fear index at 20 signals, according to traditional trading wisdom, a moment of “fear when others are fearful, greed when others are greedy.” If support holds at $86K-$88K, the chance for a year-end rally isn’t small, targeting above $93K.

Looking ahead to 2026, with increasing institutional participation and clearer regulations, the market’s structural growth momentum is building. This wave might just be a buffer before a new phase.

How are everyone’s plans? Planning to HODL through the holidays, or waiting for a big move in 2026? Or do you have other ideas? Let’s chat~

BTC-0.42%

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ForkTrooper

· 7h ago

It's extremely scary not to buy at 20, what are you waiting for? That's the logic. --- If I can hold 88k, I'll buy in; if not, I'll keep eating dirt. --- The hammer candlestick pattern is back again. Every time I say this, it still ends up falling. I don't believe you. --- Crossing 93k for the New Year? Haha, let's bet. I bet it breaks 86k. --- Institutions are optimistic about a rebound in the New Year, which means they've already quietly started accumulating. Meanwhile, we retail investors are still hesitating. --- Instead of waiting for the big market move in 26 years, why not jump in now and bet on the New Year rally? After all, it's all a gamble. --- When liquidity is thin, it's easiest to get crushed. At the end of the year, I don't believe anything except support levels. --- If it ends the year in the red, I would laugh to death. Dropping from 126k to this level, it feels like everyone's holdings are just dreaming. --- While others panic, I am greedy. The result is everyone jumping off the building together. I'm tired of hearing that, haha. --- I actually want to buy at the panic level of 20, but I just don't have any money.

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OfflineValidator

· 7h ago

The Extreme Fear Index is a bottom-fishing signal. Those who are selling in a panic now are all regretting it. As long as 86k holds, we can play. I bet there will be a small rebound around the New Year. Anyway, I've already lost so much. Institutions are quietly accumulating, retail investors are still afraid... This is the essence of the market. Can $93k really break through? It's either 2026 or bust.

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FomoAnxiety

· 7h ago

88k has dropped again? I really can't hold on anymore. Every time I think it's about to take off, it gets smashed back down. The extreme fear index is at 20, and some people still don't have the courage to buy the dip. I think this is the time to make money. If we can hold above 86k, there might be some movement around the New Year. But don't overthink it, just HODL like this.

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FloorSweeper

· 7h ago

ngl retail panic rn is literally free money signal... while they're crying i'm just loading the dip lmao. that hammer candle formation? classic accumulation setup. 2026 bout to slap harder than these paper hands realize fr fr

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MetaverseLandlord

· 7h ago

Once again, it's that "half bowl of noodles" market situation, really tense... 88k is still oscillating back and forth. I'm very afraid it might drop to 20k. The expected bottoming window? Retail investors have already exited, and institutions are diverging. This is very typical. If $86k can't hold, the new year might see a breakdown. Betting on $93k is a bit uncertain. I'll keep accumulating instead. Is there a flow of funds back into precious metals? This signal feels promising; institutions are paving the way for 2026. There are small fluctuations around the New Year, but don't expect earth-shattering changes. Just see it as a buffer period.

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RealYieldWizard

· 8h ago

At this point in the extreme fear index, according to historical patterns, it's time to bottom out, but the retail sentiment remains so cold that I'm a bit hesitant. There are only a few days left until the end of the year, and it feels a bit risky to only turn bullish if we hit 93k. Liquidity is thin, yet institutions are taking action, which is an interesting contradiction. If $86k can't hold, then it will be really awkward. Instead of HODLing, it's better to look for low-liquidity assets, as there are often anomalies at the end of the year. I believe in the hammer candlestick signal, but it also depends on how other assets perform. Precious metals are reversing, indicating that funds are indeed reallocating, and there are significant opportunities in crypto. However, the target level of 92k-93k seems more like a psychological expectation.

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LightningAllInHero

· 8h ago

It's extremely scary to try to catch the bottom window, I've already gone all in, bro. The 88k level must be defended, or else it will truly turn green by the end of the year. How is the support strength of the hammer line? Can it hold through the New Year? Rather than HODLing, it's better to get in now; institutions are quietly entering. $93k feels a bit far away, let's see if we can stabilize above 90 first. Retail investors have all fled, which is actually a good sign... Those who buy in now are all making profits. The greed index has reached its peak; based on historical experience, this is the bottom. Wait, wasn't there a panic around this time last year too... and what was the result? A bloodbath. The big trend in 2026? If you get in now, you can catch up, brother. As long as the support isn't broken, I'll keep moving forward; anyway, it won't fall much further.

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