What is the current situation of Ethereum? As of the end of 2025, the price is repeatedly testing the range of $2900-$3100, and in the short term, it is still in the bottom-building phase. Looking ahead, the second half of 2026 could be the critical breakthrough period. Specifically, in Q2 of next year, three factors may act simultaneously: the Fed cutting interest rates, zkEVM upgrades, and RWA scale explosion. These will be the true price ignition points.

**Recent 3-Month Outlook**

The current price is around $2970. There are two defense lines below—$2700-$2800 as strong support, and if broken, it depends on $2700; resistance above is at $3000-$3100. Once the price stabilizes above this level, the next target can be $3300-$3400. From a technical perspective, the daily MACD has turned bullish, RSI is in the oversold zone, and large holders are quietly increasing their holdings. These are positive signals. However, real pressure also exists—ETF net outflows continue, the Fed’s rate cut schedule is delayed, and there is volatility risk before options expiration. So, the current strategy is to take a light position and try to go long; if it falls below $2800, cut losses and exit. If it stabilizes above $3100, add positions with a target of $3300-$3400.

**Mid-term Opportunities (Next 6-12 Months)**

Citibank’s 12-month target price is $4304, roughly a 46% increase, which is not just a guess. The key triggers are: first, the Fed will cut rates 2-3 times in Q2 2026, each by 25 basis points; second, the currently continuous net outflow from ETH spot ETFs may restart inflows; third, technical upgrades like zkEVM and RWA (real-world asset tokenization) will begin large-scale application.

Price movement may follow this pattern: in Q1, it will oscillate within the $2800-$3500 bottom range; by Q2, it may break upward and surge to $4000. If the rhythm is smooth, Q3 and Q4 could push toward the $5000-$5800 range. Many institutional forecasts are above $4000, and the logic is that Ethereum’s fundamentals are improving—L2 scaling, RWA maturity, institutional deployment.

**Long-term Transformation (1-3 Years Outlook)**

What is Ethereum’s ultimate value? It’s not just a coin but evolving into a global settlement layer. Several factors support this shift: technically, Layer 2 solutions like Optimism, Arbitrum, zkSync will push Ethereum’s TPS to 100,000; zk-SNARKs and account abstraction will greatly improve privacy and user experience. Ecosystem-wise, new tracks like RWA tokenization, decentralized social, and on-chain gaming will succeed DeFi as growth engines, while staking (currently about 22%), stablecoins, and DeFi will continue steady development. Integration-wise, spot ETFs, enterprise staking, and traditional financial assets on-chain are accelerating, transforming Ethereum from a purely crypto asset into a truly compliant financial infrastructure.

**Risks to Watch**

Regulatory uncertainty has always been present—sudden policy tightening could be damaging; the increasing number of L2 projects intensifies competition, and it’s unclear who will survive longer; staking is becoming more concentrated among a few providers, reducing decentralization; macro liquidity tightening could suppress short-term prices and ecosystem expansion.

**Implementation Strategies**

Short-term: enter with a light position, with a stop-loss at $2800. Add positions if it breaks above $3100, with $3300-$3400 as a phased target.

Mid-term: once signals of rate cuts and ETF inflows are confirmed, focus on RWA-related projects, zkEVM applications, and staking services, and plan ahead.

Long-term: bet on Ethereum’s transition from a simple coin to a global settlement layer. The key indicators are activity levels on L2 and the scale of RWA expansion.