The crypto market is now oscillating back and forth between two paths—on one side, the macro factors (liquidity, interest rates, geopolitical situations), and on the other, the evolution of on-chain ecosystems. These two forces have been pulling the prices in different directions.



$BTC is gradually transforming. It’s increasingly perceived less as a speculative asset and more as a "digital reserve asset," with scarcity and anti-inflation properties becoming the main attractions. On the other hand, $ETH is like an infrastructure contractor, actively working on DeFi, Layer2, and on-chain real assets. The ecosystem map is gradually expanding.

But market sentiment is especially prone to amplification in highly volatile environments. You’ll see some people planning for five years, while others are just trading on short-term fluctuations. Short-term speculation and long-term positioning coexist, which is inherently interesting.

The key is to distinguish clearly—cycles are cycles, narratives are narratives, and the underlying fundamentals are another matter. Those who can tell the difference among these three will be able to navigate this market more steadily. This is not just a game of numbers and prices; behind it, there’s an exploration of the future shape of finance itself.
BTC0.58%
ETH-0.31%
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FancyResearchLabvip
· 2025-12-31 16:40
Luban No.7 is working on construction again, this time directly blending macro and on-chain ecology. Theoretically, it should be feasible, but why is it so difficult in practice?
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SchrodingersPapervip
· 2025-12-30 12:29
Really? The metaphor of switching between two paths repeatedly is brilliant... I'm the kind of person who gets scared by macro news and cuts losses directly, then turns around, becomes optimistic about the ecosystem, and rushes back in—someone who fights with themselves.
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BTCWaveRidervip
· 2025-12-28 18:05
The framework of cycle, narrative, and fundamentals is spot on. Most people are actually just stuck spinning within these three aspects.
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MoneyBurnerSocietyvip
· 2025-12-28 17:50
Cycles, narratives, fundamentals... You're right, but I'm one of those who can't tell the difference among the three haha. Short-term fluctuations for meals? I survive on contract auto-liquidation meals, with the bottom-fishing fund zeroing out package.
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WealthCoffeevip
· 2025-12-28 17:49
That's right, but we should be cautious of narrative merchants who only tell stories. The real money is still in the actual development of the on-chain ecosystem.
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VibesOverChartsvip
· 2025-12-28 17:45
Basically, it's about whether you can distinguish signal from noise. Most people are still being driven by their emotions.
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WhaleWatchervip
· 2025-12-28 17:43
That's right. Currently, the macro and on-chain forces are pulling in opposite directions, and retail investors are caught in the middle, which is the most uncomfortable. BTC is really transitioning from a speculative asset to a reserve asset. This logic is the long-term perspective. On the ETH side, practical applications are also being implemented. The key is to distinguish between short-term trading and long-term investment. Too many people are lost in the fluctuations and can't find their bearings.
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MerkleMaidvip
· 2025-12-28 17:43
That's very true, but how many people can really distinguish these three? Most still follow the trend and emotions.
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CrashHotlinevip
· 2025-12-28 17:32
The cyclical narrative fundamentals sound good, but few people can truly distinguish them. I am one of those who can't tell the difference. It's basically gambling—everyone is betting on when the macro will turn, and when the ecosystem will truly take off. I'm tired of the phrase that BTC is a store of value; it still depends on whether the central bank will continue to flood the market with liquidity. There's no problem with the idea that short-term speculation and long-term deployment coexist, but I feel like it's all just short-term speculation—it's just a matter of time frame. ETH is indeed active, but can its output keep up? Don't tell me it's just narrative stronger than fundamentals. The worst thing is waking up one day to find that my "fundamental judgment" is actually just an illusion caused by survivor bias.
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BridgeTrustFundvip
· 2025-12-28 17:32
BTC is indeed changing, but I feel this narrative is overblown. In the short term, we still need to watch the Federal Reserve.
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