2025-12-28 08:40:21

#美联储回购协议计划 ⚠️【Is a Fed Policy Turning Point Emerging? January Decisions Could Mark a Turning Point】

CME latest data is out, and expectations for the January Federal Reserve meeting are shifting again. $BTC $SOL $ZEC holders, the underlying logic of this wave of market movement is being rewritten.

📊 Key figures reflect a shift in market sentiment:
• 82.3% chance of holding interest rates in January, only a 17.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut
• But by March, the situation begins to sway—45.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut, 46.7% of maintaining current rates, and even a 7.7% chance of a 50 basis point cut

🔄 In two months, expectations have shifted from "holding steady" to "policy sprint." Inflation data is easing, but economic signals flicker unpredictably. The Fed's rhythm is completely disrupted.

⏰ Keep an eye on these two dates:
January 28 — The Fed’s first decision in 2025, possibly just a "test water"
March 18 — Key quarterly meeting, when the policy framework will be truly finalized

💭 The core question is:
Inflation is indeed retreating, but has the economy truly improved? If the rate cut cycle begins in March, is it a proactive "preventive" move or a forced response to a "recession"?

This will determine the liquidity rhythm of the crypto market in the coming months. What’s your take—will they act in January? Or wait until March to see?

BTC-1,24%

SOL0,12%

ZEC-3,41%

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Blockchainiac

· 2025-12-29 02:07

82.3% chance that it won't move in January, which means the Federal Reserve is saying "wait a bit," but the 45.6% chance of rate cut in March... is quite interesting, feels like policy is really shifting.

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GateUser-9ad11037

· 2025-12-28 15:27

If the interest rate really drops on January 28th, I'm going all in on SOL, betting that the Federal Reserve will really panic.

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AirdropHunter

· 2025-12-28 09:09

January remains quiet, but the real highlight is still the shot in March... Inflation has come down, but economic data is so weak. Could it be that they are trying to hedge against a recession? If that's the case, BTC will have to take off.

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GhostInTheChain

· 2025-12-28 09:06

There is an 82.3% chance of saying no to action, but by March, the attitude changes directly. The Federal Reserve is playing psychological warfare. BTC is now betting on that move in March, and I think there's an 80-90% chance of a rate cut.

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orphaned_block

· 2025-12-28 09:04

January definitely won't move, betting on March to see the results. Inflation has eased but the economy hasn't, the Fed is just pretending to stay calm in this round.

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MintMaster