Bitcoin May Break the Traditional Pattern: Grayscale Projects Different Appreciation for 2026

The analysis of Bitcoin price cycles has never been more questioned. The asset manager Grayscale presents a provocative thesis: the four-year halving that historically marks the movements of the leading cryptocurrency may lose relevance as early as 2026, giving way to broader macroeconomic factors.

The Macroeconomic Scenario in Focus

According to information from Cointribune, the change in the price cycle would not be accidental. Grayscale points out that possible reductions in interest rates by the Federal Reserve and the evolution of the regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the US are gaining increasing importance. These elements, combined, could catalyze an upward trajectory detached from the traditional cyclical patterns that have dominated the Bitcoin market so far.

Liquidity and Opportunities for Risk Assets

The injection of US$13.5 billion in liquidity by the Federal Reserve on December 1st is an important signal. Movements of this magnitude tend to benefit risk assets, a category in which Bitcoin remains included. With BTC trading around $87.35K, the confluence of monetary stimulus and regulatory developments could create a favorable scenario for new all-time highs.

The open question: will the four-year cycles still explain Bitcoin’s movements, or are we facing a new dynamic where institutional and monetary policy factors take the lead?