There are no dead fish in the crypto world, only hunters pretending to sleep—especially for old coins like DOGE that come with the genes of a whale. When they hit bottom, they actually start sniffing for meat.

This morning, I looked at the 4-hour chart and was stunned for a few seconds at DOGE’s green candle hugging the lower Bollinger Band. From 0.135 to 0.122, this move has turned a "highly elastic asset" into a "super-sold distressed holder." But if your finger is on the sell button right now, you’re falling right into the market’s trap—let’s listen to what the chart is telling us: RSI dropped straight to 19, KDJ’s J value has long been sleeping below zero, and the MACD green bars are as thin as matchsticks. These three indicators stacked together are what seasoned traders call a "triple oversold signal."

Some voices online say, "DOGE has fallen 60% this year, big institutions have all pulled out"—but that’s only half the story. According to the latest Q4 data, Grayscale’s DOGE products only attracted $2 million, which looks cold and quiet. But the on-chain story is different: those old addresses holding for over a year or even two years have been quietly adding positions, with an increase of about 0.5%. This signal is exactly the same as the scene in December last year—retail investors panic-sell, while large holders scoop up at the lows. Remember, last year around this time, DOGE also dropped from 0.13 to 0.10, only to rebound to 0.45 by the end of the month. Is this 0.122 level now just like someone deliberately digging a "golden pit" at your feet?

Look at the current market sentiment index: Bitcoin is under pressure and consolidating, but volatility is shrinking—usually a sign of a period of accumulation. Many people can’t wait for this accumulation phase and rush to exit. But for players who understand on-chain data, this is actually the clearest signal: weak retail investors are selling at a loss, while funds are quietly repositioning.

Don’t rush to make a decision. Technical analysis, on-chain data, and historical patterns are all giving the same signal now. How long this oversold condition can last is uncertain, but the next cycle—who’s lurking and who’s exiting—has already been written into the chart.