Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle Decoded: Why Is This Time Different?

Current Moment (December 2025): BTC hovers around $87.27K, a pullback from the all-time high of $126.08K, but the mechanism is quietly changing.

To understand Bitcoin’s current market, you need to look at the past. Since its inception in 2009, this crypto asset has gone through multiple cycles—each time making people think “this time is different,” only to be repeatedly proven wrong. But this time, there are some differences.

How Did the Bull Market Come About?

Bitcoin’s bull run has never appeared out of thin air. The most direct trigger is called halving—once every 4 years, the block reward is cut in half. Supply decreases, demand remains relatively stable, and prices surge.

Historical data shows:

• 2012 halving: Bitcoin soared from $5 to $130, a 2,600% increase
• 2016 halving: From $650 to around $1,000, a 315% increase
• 2020 halving: From $9,000 to $64,000, a 715% increase

It seems each increase is diminishing? Don’t worry, this indicates the market is becoming more rational—whales are positioning early, rather than reacting only on halving day.

2013: Retail Investors’ First Frenzy

That was an era when the internet still used 3G. Bitcoin skyrocketed from $145 (May) to $1,200 (December), a 730% surge that left many wide-eyed.

The driving forces were simple: media coverage + Cyprus financial crisis (people sought safe assets). But Mt.Gox collapsed in 2014—at that time, 70% of trading volume was on this exchange—and the entire market was knocked back to just over $300.

Lesson: Infrastructure determines everything. Without reliable exchanges, even the best coins are useless.

2017: ICO Frenzy and Regulatory Backlash

This cycle was different. Bitcoin shot from $1,000 to $20,000, a 1,900% increase, with daily trading volume soaring from $200M to $15B.

The fuel was the ICO boom—thousands of startups issuing tokens on Ethereum to raise funds, all requiring Bitcoin to participate. Retail investors flooded in, driven by FOMO.

But regulators couldn’t tolerate it. China banned ICOs and exchanges; the US SEC started scrutinizing. In 2018, Bitcoin crashed to $3,200, an 84% decline. The lesson was deeper: markets are no match for policy.

2020-21: Institutional Entry Changes the Game

This was a watershed moment. It was no longer retail-driven but public companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, Square buying Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

From $8,000 to $64,000 (+700%), but the key isn’t just the number—it’s who’s buying. Institutional investors poured over $10B in. Bitcoin became “digital gold” and an inflation hedge.

Even when it later dropped to $30,000, confidence wasn’t shattered. Behind it all, real money from institutions was pouring in.

2024-25: The New Era of ETFs

This is truly a game-changer.

In January, the US SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF—meaning your pension funds, fund managers, insurance companies can legally buy Bitcoin without going through exchanges.

What happened? $4.5B (at the time) flooded in. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone holds 467,000 BTC. The total Bitcoin held by all ETFs exceeds 1 million BTC—what does that mean? Out of the 19.96 million Bitcoin in circulation, institutions have accumulated over 5%.

Bitcoin surged from $40,000 to $93,000 (+132%). But this isn’t madness; it’s rational capital deploying.

Then came the April halving, along with Trump’s return to the White House signaling a “pro-crypto” stance—these factors are fueling expectations.

What is the current $87.27K?

• 31% below the ATH of $126.08K
• Market cap $1.74T, already a major global asset
• 24-hour trading volume $1.03B, ample liquidity
• Over 55 million addresses holding coins, solid foundation

Is This Time Truly Different?

Let’s look at some key differences:

Institutional Level: In the past, Bitcoin was a rebellious asset; now it’s embraced. The US is considering adding Bitcoin to the national reserves (BITCOIN Act 2024 proposes acquiring 1 million coins), El Salvador and Bhutan are already doing so.

Technological Level: Bitcoin may enable OP_CAT upgrades, unlocking Layer-2 scaling solutions—potentially handling thousands of transactions per second, meaning Bitcoin is no longer just a “digital vault” but can also support DeFi.

Market Level: It has shifted from “a one-man party” to “institutional allocation.” When pension funds and sovereign wealth funds are involved, a bottom is forming.

But Risks Still Lurk

Don’t get blinded by data:

• Macro risks: rising interest rates, recession could divert funds to stable assets
• Regulatory risks: governments may tighten policies at any time
• Technical risks: OP_CAT upgrade is not yet confirmed; competing coins are stealing attention
• Sentiment risks: FOMO during retail influx and subsequent panic selling often go hand in hand

History shows that before every bear market, someone says “this time is different.” And after each bear, someone regrets not holding on.

What’s the Key?

For individual investors: prepare for long-term holding. Don’t chase highs, and don’t get shaken by short-term volatility. If you believe in Bitcoin’s narrative (inflation hedge, digital gold reserve, financial innovation), then dollar-cost average and endure the cycles.

For the crypto market: the next bull run will be signaled by—new ETF approvals, government reserve announcements, major technological upgrades. Once these happen, the impact on prices will be faster than ever before.

Bitcoin’s story is still being written. $87.27K is neither the end nor a trap—it’s just the market’s current pricing of the future. How much you can earn depends on your confidence in that future and your ability to withstand volatility.