Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle Unveiled: From Early Prosperity to Institutional Entry

What Is a Bitcoin “Bull Market”? A Market Observation Guide

Since Bitcoin’s inception in 2009, its price has not risen steadily but has gone through multiple spectacular growth cycles. Each significant surge is accompanied by clear market signals and trigger factors.

A bull market is not merely characterized by rising prices but by a period exhibiting the following features: surging trading volume, increasing social media buzz, rising on-chain activity, and exuberant investor sentiment. Compared to traditional stock markets, Bitcoin’s bull markets are more volatile and dramatic, often generating astonishing returns in a short period.

Key indicators that best signal a bull market include: Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaking above 70, upward crossovers of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, substantial inflows of stablecoins into exchanges, and continuous decline in Bitcoin reserves on exchanges. These data reflect the true behavior of market participants—they are accumulating rather than fleeing.

The magic of halving events is crucial to understanding Bitcoin cycles. Every four years, the Bitcoin network automatically halves the mining reward, directly limiting new coin supply. Historical data shows: after the 2012 halving, BTC surged by 5200%; after the 2016 halving, it increased by 315%; following the 2020 halving, it rose by 230%. Supply constraints have become the core engine driving prices higher.

How Long Do Bitcoin Bear Markets Usually Last? The Truth About Market Cycles

A core concern for investors is: How long does a Bitcoin bear market typically last before it ends?

Historical patterns show that Bitcoin’s bear cycles follow a clear pattern:

• 2013-2015 bear market: from $1,200 down to a low, lasting about 2 years, with a maximum decline of 75%
• 2017-2018 bear market: from a high of $20,000 to $3,200, taking over a year, with an 84% drop
• 2021-2022 correction period: from $69,000 to around $16,000, lasting about half a year to a year

Generally, Bitcoin’s bear cycles last 12-24 months. However, the depth and duration of a bear market often depend on the severity of trigger factors—regulatory shocks or security incidents can prolong the pain, while technological progress or institutional recognition can accelerate recovery.

2013: Bitcoin’s First Spotlight Moment

2013 was the year Bitcoin transitioned from a niche tech geek circle to mainstream awareness.

That year, Bitcoin soared from $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a cumulative increase of 730%. This was not just a price miracle but marked the birth of a new asset class.

Multiple factors drove this surge: First, widespread media coverage expanded Bitcoin from a topic among professionals to dinner table chatter; second, real-world economic events—Cyprus bank crisis made ordinary depositors realize the risks of centralized finance, highlighting Bitcoin’s appeal as an “anti-censorship currency”; third, initial infrastructure improvements, with trading platforms emerging.

But prosperity was followed by a plunge. In 2014, Mt.Gox, which handled 70% of global Bitcoin transactions, suffered security breaches and insolvency, resulting in tens of thousands of Bitcoins lost. This disaster shattered market confidence, with Bitcoin dropping over 75%, leading to a prolonged winter.

This history taught the market a profound lesson: Infrastructure security is the cornerstone of sustainable market development.

2017: Retail Investors’ Frenzy and Bubble Burst

2017 remains one of the most疯狂 years in Bitcoin history for many.

From $1,000 at the start of the year to $20,000 at year-end, the growth was more than just doubling—it was a 19-fold increase, completely transforming Bitcoin’s image among the public. That year, Bitcoin made headlines in global financial media, became a hot topic at dinner tables, and even taxi drivers could name a few cryptocurrencies.

The main triggers for this rally were threefold:

First, the ICO (Initial Coin Offering) boom. Thousands of new projects raised funds by issuing tokens, attracting大量 retail investors. After initial gains, these new investors naturally started researching Bitcoin as the “big brother.”

Second, democratization of trading platforms. More user-friendly apps allowed anyone with a smartphone to participate, lowering entry barriers and driving massive inflows of traffic and capital.

Third, the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) psychology amplified in a feedback loop: rising prices → news reports → more people see it → more buy-in → prices rise further.

But the good times didn’t last. By early 2018, the market started to sober up. Regulators in China and other countries began cracking down, banning ICOs and exchanges. These policies shattered speculators’ illusions, causing BTC to plummet, eventually reaching a low of around $3,200 in late 2018, an 80% decline.

This cycle taught the market that: Retail-led markets are prone to bubbles, and policy regulation can instantly burst them.

2020-2021: Institutional Entry Changes the Game

The bull market of 2020-2021 was fundamentally different from the previous two—this time, the backing came not from retail on screens but from asset management firms, publicly listed companies, and traditional financial institutions.

Bitcoin surged from about $8,000 in early 2020 to $64,000 in April 2021, a gain of over 700%. Throughout this period, the narrative also shifted gradually. The label of “gambling tool for overnight riches” was replaced by “digital gold.”

Key milestones of institutional adoption include:

• MicroStrategy, Tesla, and other listed companies allocating part of their cash reserves to Bitcoin
• Approval of futures products, providing familiar hedging tools for institutions
• Central banks worldwide injecting liquidity and maintaining low interest rates, prompting investors to seek inflation-hedged assets

A significant macro backdrop was the massive monetary stimulus in response to COVID-19, raising concerns about rising prices. In this macro environment, Bitcoin’s features—“fixed supply, impossible to print”—became especially valuable.

Although this cycle also experienced a correction (from $64,000 mid-2021 to around $30,000), institutional participation provided support at the lows, significantly enhancing market resilience.

2024-2025: ETF Approval and New Competition Landscape

2024 marks a turning point for Bitcoin investors.

The key catalyst was the SEC’s approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in January. This seemingly technical regulatory decision actually opened the door to a trillion-dollar traditional asset management industry. Pension funds, portfolio managers, insurance companies—those who never directly bought crypto assets—can now easily gain exposure to Bitcoin as they do with gold ETFs.

Data speaks volumes: by November 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $28.5 billion in net inflows, surpassing traditional gold ETFs. Asset management giant BlackRock’s(IBIT fund alone holds over 467,000 Bitcoins, making it the world’s largest Bitcoin holder.

Meanwhile, the fourth halving event in April further reinforced supply scarcity. Starting the year at around $40,000, Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of over $93,000 in November, a yearly increase of over 130%.

But this cycle also faces new risks:

• Highly concentrated ETF holdings could pose liquidity risks
• Macroeconomic uncertainties (interest rates, inflation, geopolitical tensions) remain threats
• Environmental concerns over Bitcoin mining energy consumption continue to rise
• Competition from other cryptocurrencies’ technological innovations may divert investment

Currently, Bitcoin trades around $87,270 (as of December 2025), down from its peak. This reminds us that even institutional markets are not immune to cyclical volatility.

The Three Major Possibilities for Bitcoin’s Future

First, the rise of Bitcoin as a reserve asset for governments. U.S. Senator Loomis proposed the “Bitcoin Act of 2024,” recommending the U.S. Treasury purchase 1 million Bitcoins over five years. While its passage remains uncertain, it reflects a new political trend. The Bhutan government, through its sovereign investment arm, has accumulated over 13,000 Bitcoins; El Salvador continues to increase its strategic reserves. If more countries follow suit, Bitcoin’s demand could enter a new scale.

Second, technological upgrades expanding application scenarios. Bitcoin’s network is exploring upgrades like OP_CAT, which could enable Layer-2 scaling solutions and on-chain DeFi functionalities. Successful implementation might evolve Bitcoin from a simple “store of value” to a more versatile value transfer network, challenging Ethereum’s dominance in DeFi.

Third, maturation of regulatory frameworks. As Bitcoin’s role in traditional finance solidifies, countries are establishing more comprehensive regulations. This could limit speculation but also provide more protections and conveniences for legitimate participants.

What Should Investors Do When a Bear Market Arrives

Since Bitcoin’s bear markets typically last 12-24 months, rational investors should:

Stay informed: Keep an eye on policy developments (regulatory approvals, bans), macroeconomic indicators (interest rates, inflation data), and technological progress (network upgrades, security incidents).

Adopt a long-term perspective: Every bear market has caused doubts about Bitcoin’s future, but historical data shows that patient holders ultimately reap substantial rewards. The key is to distinguish “cyclical adjustments” from “systemic risks.”

Diversify risks: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Combining Bitcoin with traditional assets (stocks, bonds) can buffer against crypto market volatility.

Avoid chasing the market: The biggest enemy in a bear market isn’t the market itself but emotional decisions. Set stop-losses to protect capital, but also give room for reversals.

Prepare for the next opportunity: Bottoms in past bear markets have always presented new accumulation opportunities. Pre-plan “if BTC drops to a certain price, I will buy this much” to stay rational when others are fearful.

Conclusion: Signal Lights for the Next Bull Market

The history of Bitcoin is a series of shocks and recoveries. From the media frenzy in 2013 to retail bubble in 2017, then institutional recognition in 2020-2021, and the ETF era in 2024, each cycle has brought new participants, risks, and opportunities.

Currently, Bitcoin is at a critical turning point. The ETF approval marks the official integration of traditional finance with crypto assets, but it also means that Bitcoin’s price behavior will be increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than community sentiment alone.

To anticipate the next bull run, investors should monitor key signals: progress of halving cycles, institutional fund flows, subtle regulatory changes, and macroeconomic turning points.

For most, understanding Bitcoin’s cyclical nature is more important than trying to precisely time the market. A typical 12-24 month bear market, though painful, lays the groundwork for the next accumulation. History never repeats exactly, but it rhymes. The next boom may quietly arrive when you least expect it.