Cryptocurrency Bull Market Cycle: Fifteen Years of Bitcoin's Journey from Zero

Current Situation: A New Chapter in the 2024-25 Cryptocurrency Bull Market

As of December 2025, Bitcoin is at a pivotal point. The spot Bitcoin ETF has been approved in the United States for nearly two years, attracting over $28 billion in cumulative capital inflows, fundamentally changing traditional finance’s perception of digital assets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has risen from around $40,000 at the beginning of 2024 to a high of $93,000 mid-year, currently fluctuating around $86,000 — the scale and sustainability of this crypto bull market have far exceeded previous cycles.

Global top asset management firms like Blackstone and BlackRock are actively promoting Bitcoin ETFs, and institutional accumulation by companies such as MicroStrategy and those led by Elon Musk signals the start of a new era. This is no longer a market driven by retail investors in 2013 or 2017, but a systematic trend driven by Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical risks, and institutional capital.

Understanding the Nature of Cryptocurrency Bull Markets

What is a cryptocurrency bull market?

A crypto bull market is not merely a price increase but a market cycle driven by multiple catalysts. These include:

• Halving events: Bitcoin’s reward is halved every four years, automatically limiting new supply and creating scarcity.
• Regulatory breakthroughs: Governments shift from hostility to acceptance (e.g., SEC approval of ETFs).
• Institutional capital inflows: Large funds and corporations view digital assets as strategic reserves.
• Macroeconomic backdrop: In high-inflation environments, investors seek alternative stores of value.

Over the past fifteen years, each crypto bull market has had its unique drivers but follows a similar psychological cycle — from skepticism to attention, from attention to euphoria, and finally to collapse and rebuilding.

Historical Review: Evolution of the Five Crypto Bull Markets

First Cycle (2013): The Wild Growth Era

Market Performance: Bitcoin surged from $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a 730% increase.

Driving Factors:

• Media coverage of Bitcoin expanded, attracting retail speculation.
• The Cyprus banking crisis prompted investors to seek safe assets.
• Faith from early adopters and tech enthusiasts.

Market Characteristics:

• Extremely weak trading infrastructure, with most trading on small exchanges.
• A major exchange (accounting for about 70% of global volume at the time) was hacked and eventually went bankrupt, causing confidence to plummet.
• Prices fell below $300 in 2014, a 75% decline.

Lesson: Despite catastrophic infrastructure failures, the market demonstrated remarkable resilience, eventually recovering from the crisis.

Second Cycle (2017): ICO Boom and Retail Frenzy

Market Performance: Bitcoin rose from $1,000 in January to $19,800 in December, a 1,900% increase.

Driving Factors:

• Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) became a new fundraising trend, attracting millions of new investors.
• Exchange proliferation (despite lax regulation), making it easy for retail to buy Bitcoin and other tokens.
• FOMO sentiment peaked on social media and forums.

Market Characteristics:

• Daily trading volume soared from less than $200 million at the start of the year to $15 billion by year-end.
• Many unqualified investors traded with leverage.
• Chinese government began restricting ICOs and trading activities.

Market Collapse: Starting early 2018, prices declined, falling to $3,200 by year-end, an 84% drop.

Reflection: Despite extreme volatility and regulatory crackdowns, Bitcoin’s survival proved its position in mainstream finance.

Third Cycle (2020-2021): Institutional Capital Enters

Market Performance: Bitcoin rose from $8,000 in January 2020 to $64,000 in April 2021, a 700% increase; then peaked at $69,000 in November 2021.

Driving Factors:

• Pandemic-induced QE measures prompted investors to seek inflation hedges.
• Major listed companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla announced Bitcoin holdings.
• Bitcoin futures and spot ETFs (overseas markets) launched, opening doors for institutional investors.

Market Characteristics:

• Institutional holdings surged: by 2021, listed companies held over 125,000 BTC, with institutional investments exceeding $10 billion.
• The “digital gold” narrative was established; Bitcoin was no longer just a speculative tool but an asset class.
• Retail participation on social media became more rational, with deeper market analysis.

Turning Point: Regulatory concerns in May 2021 (e.g., environmental issues and China’s mining ban) caused prices to retreat from $64,000 to $30,000.

Fourth Cycle (2023-2024): Regulatory Recognition and Turning Point

Market Performance: Bitcoin hit multiple milestones in 2024. After the SEC approved a spot ETF in January, prices rose from $40,000 to $93,000, a 133% increase; currently around $86,000.

Driving Factors:

• The fourth halving in April 2024 automatically reduced new supply.
• US spot Bitcoin ETF approval in January, followed by approvals in Europe and other regions.
• The US political environment shifted to a more friendly stance toward crypto.
• The Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates, increasing appeal for non-yield assets like Bitcoin.

Market Characteristics:

• Record-breaking ETF capital inflows: over $28 billion into US spot ETFs alone (by end of 2024).
• BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone holds over 467,000 BTC.
• Growing institutional accumulation: companies like MicroStrategy continue to systematically increase holdings.
• On-chain data shows exchange-held Bitcoin at a record low, indicating large amounts of capital are being held long-term.

Identifying Technical Signals of a Crypto Bull Market

Investors and traders need a set of tools to recognize the arrival and maturity of a bull market.

Technical Indicators:

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): When RSI exceeds 70, it often indicates strong buying momentum. During the 2024-25 cycle, Bitcoin’s RSI has repeatedly exceeded 75.
• Moving Averages: Golden crosses of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages often signal the start of an uptrend. In this cycle, Bitcoin has clearly broken through all major moving averages.
• Price making new highs: Each breakthrough of previous highs attracts new buying.

On-Chain Data:

• Wallet activity increases: rising number of new addresses and on-chain transactions.
• Exchange inflows decrease: investors tend to withdraw to self-custody wallets, indicating long-term holding intentions.
• Stablecoin inflows increase: investors prepare to deploy capital, often entering via stablecoins.
• Whale activity: large transfers decrease, showing strong institutional and whale investor commitment.

Macroeconomic Environment:

• Real interest rates: when real rates decline or turn negative, Bitcoin’s appeal as a non-yield asset increases.
• US Dollar Index: a weakening dollar generally benefits dollar-denominated assets.
• Geopolitical risk premium: in uncertain environments, capital flows into safe-haven assets, including Bitcoin.

Core Mechanisms Driving the Crypto Bull Market

The Fate of Halving Cycles

Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million coins, with creator Satoshi Nakamoto designing the halving mechanism to control new supply. This mechanism has been repeatedly validated over the past fifteen years:

• Post-2012 halving: price increased by 5,200%
• Post-2016 halving: price increased by 315%
• Post-2020 halving: price increased by 230%
• Post-2024 halving: a new crypto bull market begins

Each halving cuts the new supply in half, creating natural scarcity. When this supply reduction overlaps with increasing institutional demand, explosive price growth conditions are formed.

Evolution of Regulatory Frameworks

Early on, Bitcoin was seen as a fringe product, with regulatory attitudes varying by country. Over time, regulatory frameworks have matured:

• United States: SEC’s approval of spot ETFs marked a turning point, elevating Bitcoin from a speculative commodity to a legitimate financial product.
• Europe: MiCA regulations established legal status and investor protections for crypto assets.
• Asia: Countries like Japan and Singapore have created relatively friendly regulatory environments.
• Emerging Economies: Countries like El Salvador have adopted Bitcoin as legal tender or official reserves.

Institutional Capital’s Qualitative Shift

Previous crypto bull markets were mainly driven by retail sentiment, prone to bubbles and crashes. This cycle’s uniqueness lies in the systematic entry of institutional capital:

• Top asset management firms (BlackRock, Vanguard, etc.) include Bitcoin in flagship funds.
• Listed companies hold millions of BTC on their balance sheets.
• Pension funds and insurance companies are beginning to allocate to crypto assets.
• Central banks and governments are considering including Bitcoin in foreign exchange reserves.

Looking Ahead: New Trends in the Crypto Bull Market

The Potential of Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve Asset

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the “Bitcoin Act of 2024,” recommending the U.S. Treasury acquire 1 million BTC over five years as strategic reserves. Although the bill’s passage probability is currently limited, it reflects a rising consensus — Bitcoin could become an official reserve asset for countries.

Already, countries like Bhutan and El Salvador are leading:

• Bhutan’s official investment fund holds over 13,000 BTC.
• El Salvador holds about 5,875 BTC and has adopted Bitcoin as legal tender.

If this trend expands to major economies, demand for Bitcoin will experience structural growth.

Technical Upgrades to the Bitcoin Network

The possible activation of the OP_CAT opcode will bring a qualitative leap to Bitcoin. This upgrade can unlock:

• Layer-2 scaling solutions, processing thousands of transactions per second.
• Smart contract capabilities, enabling Bitcoin to run decentralized applications similar to Ethereum.
• DeFi ecosystem, transforming Bitcoin from a store of value into productive capital.

Once these upgrades are implemented, Bitcoin may no longer be just “digital gold” but the foundational layer of the entire digital financial ecosystem.

Diversification of Crypto Asset Investment Tools

Spot ETFs are just the beginning. Future products may include:

• Bitcoin options and structured products to meet risk management needs.
• Bitcoin bonds and fixed-income instruments.
• Cross-asset portfolios combining Bitcoin with traditional assets.
• Regional crypto ETFs tailored to local regulations and environments.

How to Make Rational Decisions in the Next Crypto Bull Market

1. Build a Knowledge Framework

• Study the core concepts of the Bitcoin white paper, understanding its technical and economic design.
• Analyze the characteristics of the past four crypto bull markets to identify patterns and differences.
• Master basic on-chain analysis tools, such as whale tracking and exchange flow analysis.

2. Develop Clear Investment Plans

• Define investment goals: short-term trading profits vs. long-term asset allocation.
• Set risk tolerance: how much volatility can you endure without changing your strategy?
• Establish entry and exit rules: under what conditions will you buy or sell? Avoid emotional decisions.

3. Choose Safe and Reliable Trading Platforms

When selecting trading platforms, focus on:

• Security measures: cold storage, multi-signature, regular security audits.
• Liquidity: trading pairs, daily volume, bid-ask spreads.
• User experience: interface friendliness, mobile app quality, customer support.
• Regulatory compliance: licensed or approved by local regulators.

4. Protect Asset Security

• Keep short-term trading funds on the trading platform.
• Use hardware wallets (Ledger, Trezor) for medium- and long-term holdings.
• Enable all security features offered by platforms: two-factor authentication, withdrawal address whitelists.
• Regularly back up private keys and recovery phrases, storing them securely.

5. Continuously Monitor Market Dynamics

• Follow official announcements and major news, such as regulatory changes and technical upgrades.
• Track on-chain indicators: whale movements, exchange net inflows, miner activity.
• Monitor macroeconomic indicators: Fed policies, inflation data, USD index.
• Participate in community discussions but beware of hype and false information.

6. Avoid Common Mistakes

• Emotional trading: don’t chase high FOMO during market surges; don’t panic sell during dips.
• Over-leverage: leverage amplifies gains but also risks; beginners should avoid excessive leverage.
• Concentrated bets: don’t put all your funds into a single asset or strategy; diversify appropriately.
• Ignoring taxes: crypto trading may have tax obligations; consult local tax professionals.

7. Build a Diversified Portfolio

• Use Bitcoin as a core holding, allocating a portion of your total assets (risk-dependent).
• Include other crypto assets (like Ethereum) for ecosystem diversification.
• Maintain traditional assets (stocks, bonds, real estate) to reduce overall risk.

8. Engage with the Community and Continue Learning

• Join crypto forums and social media groups to share experiences and information.
• Attend online courses, webinars, and industry conferences to deepen knowledge.
• Follow academic research and industry reports to stay updated on latest developments.

Conclusion: Patience for the Next Crypto Bull Market Opportunity

Since Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin in 2009, there have been four major crypto bull markets, each driven by unique forces and market features. From early exploration in 2013, retail frenzy in 2017, institutional entry in 2021, to the current 2024-25 regulatory recognition, Bitcoin has continuously evolved from an experimental fringe to a key participant in the global financial system.

While it’s impossible to precisely predict the timing of the next crypto bull market, history offers clear signals. The predictability of halving events, ongoing institutional capital inflows, regulatory improvements, and expanding network capabilities form a long-term optimistic foundation.

For investors, the key is to maintain humility in knowledge, develop rational plans, and stay principled amid market volatility. The crypto bull market is not a get-rich-quick tool but a highly dynamic asset class that requires patience, discipline, and continuous learning to navigate.

Whether long-term holders or short-term traders, those well-prepared, with a calm mindset and resilience, will be rewarded when the next opportunity arrives.