2025-12-26 15:22:58

The holiday market seems calm on the surface, but in fact, undercurrents are surging. Recently, I’ve had some small gains from short-term trading, and I’d like to summarize my thoughts from now until January, which might provide some inspiration for everyone.

Looking at ETH’s recent trend, I increasingly feel it’s reminiscent of the signs before the 2022 bear market started. Remember? First, a rapid plunge, then a long period of sideways accumulation. Soon after, the market experienced a fake-out rebound, making people think a reversal was coming. But in the end, there was a flash crash that completely wiped out retail investors who were riding the wave. Although history doesn’t repeat exactly, this rhythm is quite easy to see again.

My specific operations are divided into two phases:

**Now until early January: Short-term high-frequency arbitrage**

During the Double Holiday period, big funds are resting, market volatility is limited, and it has become a paradise for short-term arbitrage. Recently, I opened small short positions on ETH near $3000 and ZEC near $450, taking profits at $2950 and $435 respectively. Honestly, these trades don’t yield much profit, but the advantage is high frequency and manageable risk. The key is to maintain a good trading feel, while reinvesting floating profits to gradually grow the principal. Consider this money as ammunition for the big market move ahead.

**Mid-January: Lurking for swing trading opportunities**

Here’s the key. I am very confident about the Federal Reserve’s stance in January — they will definitely not cut interest rates. The market will quickly react to this expectation, especially about two weeks before the January 27 meeting, when a downward trend is likely to start and continue until around the meeting date.

Specifically, I favor two ideal shorting zones: around 3170 and around 3400. If the market shows a “fake-out” rally at these levels, that’s an excellent opportunity to set up long-term low-leverage short positions. Don’t rush in all at once; try small positions first, then gradually add based on market reactions. This approach will keep your mindset more stable.

ETH-1.04%

ZEC0.16%

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GateUser-40edb63b

· 3h ago

The wave in 2022 was indeed ruthless in harvesting, this time I really need to be more cautious.

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AirdropworkerZhang

· 3h ago

I also fell for that wave in 2022. Now looking at this pattern, it really looks familiar and a bit unsettling.

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CryptoTarotReader

· 3h ago

The rhythm of cutting leeks in 2022 is back again, I'm honestly a bit scared. --- Small positions grow big, that's the proper way to play, unlike some fools who go all in. --- Let's see if your predictions at the end of January are accurate, betting on a like. --- That pump to lure more buyers, I estimate another batch of people will die, so I'll stay away. --- ETH at $3000 has been stuck at this level for almost a year, what kind of rebound is this? --- Short-term arbitrage is quite profitable, but my reaction speed isn't fast enough to keep up with the rhythm. --- Is the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates reliable? Are they really that confident? --- Making money during the Christmas and New Year holidays, your trading skills are indeed top-notch. --- I've noted the two levels at 3170 and 3400, I'll watch the show when the time comes. --- Don't lie to me, is this really going to break the bottom this time, or is it another round of leek-cutting game?

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RugResistant