Late at night, while analyzing on-chain data, I was immediately stunned—BlackRock quietly moved approximately $29 million worth of ETH positions. At first glance, it might seem insignificant, but considering that the current crypto market liquidity has not fully recovered, this move's impact is comparable to dropping a boulder into shallow waters.

Even more astonishing is what happened next. Over the past 24 hours, ETH prices surprisingly continued to inch upward, hovering around $2940, yet trading volume was cut by more than 40%. This phenomenon of "rising price with declining volume" raises the question: is the market sending false signals, or is this just calm before the storm? Today, we will peel back this layer and examine the underlying logic.

**Price and volume moving in sync is the fundamental rule of market behavior**

A healthy market trend follows a simple principle: either both price and volume rise together, indicating strong buying power; or price falls while volume increases, showing that holders are actively clearing positions. But the current "rising price with shrinking volume" situation in ETH is actually a signal—buying is artificially inflated, but genuine demand is lacking.

Why does BlackRock's transfer cause the market to feel immediate pressure? The root cause lies in the hidden scarcity of liquidity. When available liquidity is limited, market participants tend to overreact to any signals that might increase supply. This "potential selling pressure" expectation is enough to freeze retail investors' enthusiasm to buy.

I reviewed the on-chain data records. In the past 24 hours, the number of large transfers exceeding 1000 ETH increased by 21% quarter-on-quarter. At first glance, it looks like institutions are acting, but the other side of the data tells a different story—active buy orders account for less than 45%. In other words, while big players are moving, retail investors are on the sidelines, and the market's capacity to absorb these moves is weak.

**The metaphor of institutional transfers should not be underestimated**

A reminder for newcomers: every large transfer by top institutions is not an isolated event. Even a routine internal rebalancing by a fund of BlackRock's scale can be interpreted by the market as a potential selling signal. Market sentiment can shift in an instant.

The current market atmosphere is like a frightened bird—liquidity has not truly warmed up, and any small disturbance could trigger collective panic. Under such conditions, the seemingly calm price trend actually conceals significant instability. Short-term volatility may be limited, but the seeds of risk have already been planted.