The market has been stuck in an interesting vicious cycle these days. After Bitcoin's sharp decline, questions like "Is now the time to buy?" and "Is this a bottoming opportunity?" are flooding major communities. But honestly, when many people ask this question, their thinking is already flawed.

Instead of obsessing over whether to buy or not, it's better to clarify when to buy and how much to buy. These are two different things.

Looking at a set of data makes this clear. The recent liquidation volume exceeded 2 billion, which is equivalent to about 15% of the recent daily average trading volume. What does this mean? Mainly, short-term speculative funds are fleeing, while the core positions of large investors and institutions have not experienced large-scale withdrawals. Historical patterns are clear: after each major liquidation, the market enters a 1-2 week period of consolidation and volatility. It won't break through with a single limit-down candle, nor will it rebound immediately. Calm days are yet to come.

So when is the right time to bottom fish? My criteria are quite straightforward:

**The first signal is trading volume.** Check if it can stay above 80% of the daily average for three consecutive days. When volume recovers, it indicates that there are buyers willing to step in.

**The second signal is price.** Bitcoin needs to hold above a key support level—currently around $28,000 (note that support levels vary with each cycle and should be adjusted based on real-time trends). Repeated confirmation of support indicates genuine buying interest below.

**The third signal is external factors.** There should be clear positive catalysts, such as regulatory policies settling or major institutions announcing positions. Periods of news vacuum are not suitable for aggressive moves.

From this perspective, the current pace is neither the best time to bottom fish nor the time to cut losses. The smartest choice for beginners is to wait and observe, and only add positions when signals become clearer.