Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle: When Will the Next Rally Come? Reading the Past to Understand the Future

Bitcoin price fluctuations are not merely random movements but have repeatedly followed clear cycle patterns. From the early days in 2013 to the present in 2024, each bull run has had its own catalysts but follows common laws. Understanding past patterns helps to see when the next bull market might arrive and how to interpret its signs.

What is a Bull Run, and Why Is It Important?

A Bitcoin bull market (bull run) refers to a sustained and dramatic price increase lasting several months to over a year. During this period, not only does the price rise significantly, but investor sentiment shifts greatly, media coverage increases, and new capital flows into the market—creating a special phase.

The characteristics of a bull market are clear. Trading volume surges, mentions on social media explode, and wallet activity becomes active. These are not just numbers—they are proof that the market is starting to focus on Bitcoin.

Historically, Bitcoin experiences major bull runs approximately every four years, closely related to the “halving” cycle.

Four Major Catalysts That Generate Bull Runs

1. Halving Events

Bitcoin halving is a four-year event where mining rewards are cut in half. This slows the growth rate of Bitcoin supply and sharply increases scarcity.

Looking at past data:

• After the 2012 halving: +5,200%
• After the 2016 halving: +315%
• After the 2020 halving: +230%

Interestingly, each halving has been followed by a bull run, indicating that supply tightening is a powerful engine driving prices higher.

2. Institutional Adoption Expansion

From the early retail rally in 2013, to the entry of institutional investors in 2020-2021, and the approval of ETFs in 2024, institutional acceptance has grown. Each step has brought in larger funds, creating more sustainable bull runs.

In January 2024, the U.S. SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF, making it easier for traditional financial institutions to access Bitcoin. By November, cumulative ETF inflows exceeded $4.5 billion, and supply on exchanges has rapidly decreased.

3. Macroeconomic Environment

External economic factors such as inflation concerns, low interest rate policies, and geopolitical instability greatly influence Bitcoin demand. During the pandemic in 2020-2021, excessive monetary easing led Bitcoin to be recognized as “digital gold” and a hedge against inflation, accelerating its adoption.

4. Regulatory Environment Improvements

Political changes are also crucial. The re-election of Trump in 2024 and crypto-friendly policies have brought new optimism to the market. Governments beginning to consider Bitcoin as a strategic asset significantly encourages institutional investment.

Dissecting Historical Bull Runs: Four Phases

2013: The First Explosive Growth

From about $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a 730% increase. This was during the Cyprus banking crisis, which heightened economic anxiety and drew attention to Bitcoin as a “safe asset.”

However, in 2014, prices fell below $300, experiencing an 75% crash. The Mt. Gox exchange hack traumatized the market, leading to a prolonged bear market.

2017: The Era of Media and FOMO

From $1,000 in January to $20,000 in December, a staggering 1,900% rise. The growth was driven by the initial ICO boom and retail investor frenzy.

Media outlets daily reported Bitcoin prices, and even those with no prior financial interest started investing. But early 2018 saw an 84% crash within a year, triggered by SEC regulatory warnings and China’s ICO ban.

2020-2021: The Institutional Era

From $8,000 in early 2020 to $64,000 in April 2021, a 700% increase. The key difference was the large-scale purchase of Bitcoin by public companies like MicroStrategy.

Institutional inflows exceeded $10 billion, and price volatility became more stable. Pandemic-related monetary easing and inflation fears helped Bitcoin establish itself as a long-term asset.

2024-2025: ETF and Supply Shock

Currently, Bitcoin has risen from $40,000 in January 2024 to $87,120 (as of December 2025). The main driver is the spot Bitcoin ETF aimed at institutional investors.

Within months of ETF approval, inflows surpassed $450 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT ETF holding over 467,000 BTC. Simultaneously, the April halving reduced new supply from 450 BTC/day to 225 BTC/day, creating a supply shock that pushes prices higher.

Five Signals to Read the Next Bull Run

1. On-Chain Indicators

Rapid increases in wallet activity, inflows of stablecoins to exchanges, and accumulation by long-term holders reveal investor behavior. In 2024, large addresses are accumulating Bitcoin, with “whales” gradually withdrawing supply.

2. Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Technical Indicators

When RSI recovers from oversold levels below 30 and surpasses 50, it often signals the start of a bull run.

3. Trading Volume and Price Patterns

Unusual increases in trading volume upon breaking new resistance levels indicate new capital entering the market.

4. Media and Market Sentiment

A surge in Bitcoin mentions on social media, increased mainstream media coverage, and rising social sentiment scores are typical early signals of a bull run.

5. Regulatory and Policy Shifts

ETF approvals, favorable government statements, and new financial products can trigger institutional capital inflows.

When Will the Next Bull Run Come? Three Scenarios

Scenario 1: Short-term Reacceleration (Next 3-6 Months)

If current policies persist and ETF inflows accelerate, Bitcoin could hit new all-time highs before 2025. Historically, bull runs do not move in a straight line but involve corrections along the way.

Scenario 2: The Next Major Cycle (Late 2025 - 2026)

The next halving is in 2028, but the cycle peak may occur in late 2025 or early 2026. Past patterns show rallies often start 12-18 months before halving.

Scenario 3: Multi-year Range Market

Due to regulatory uncertainties and macroeconomic deterioration, Bitcoin might trade within a range of $70,000–$90,000. Even in this case, individual upward trends will emerge every few months.

The Harsh Reality of Bull Market Cycles

There are important lessons from past bull runs.

Volatility is Unavoidable: During each bull run, 20-30% corrections are common. Reacting emotionally to short-term swings can cause you to miss real opportunities.

Peaks Are Unpredictable: In 2017, $20,000 seemed the peak, but in 2021, it reached $64,000. Judging that the top has been reached is extremely risky.

Institutional Investment Brings Stability: Compared to the wild swings of 2013 and 2017, the 2024-25 bull run is relatively stable, thanks to institutional participation.

Supply Constraints Drive Value: The fixed supply of 21 million Bitcoin and the halving cycle form the foundation of its long-term value.

Practical Actions to Prepare for a Bull Run

1. Maintain a Long-term Perspective
Bull runs typically last several years. Focus on a 4-year cycle rather than short-term trading.

2. Diversify Your Portfolio
Avoid putting all your funds into Bitcoin alone; balancing with other assets helps manage extreme volatility.

3. Prioritize Security
Use hardware wallets, enable two-factor authentication, and conduct regular security audits. Only by securely storing Bitcoin can you benefit from a bull run.

4. Monitor Regulatory Trends
Policy changes greatly influence the market. Track government crypto policies, tax rules, and international regulations in real time.

5. Eliminate Emotional Decisions
FOMO buying and panic selling ruin potential gains. Stick to your pre-defined strategy.

Conclusion: Preparing for the Next Bull Run

Bitcoin’s cyclical bull markets are not just speculative phenomena but are intertwined with halving supply shocks, gradual institutional acceptance, and macroeconomic shifts.

The 2024-25 bull run differs from past cycles in being more institutionalized and predictable. However, volatility remains, and significant corrections are possible.

While predicting the exact timing of the next bull run is impossible, analyzing past signals, on-chain data, and macro conditions can help you prepare.

The key is not to perfectly predict when it will happen but to have a strategy that ensures you participate when it does and minimize losses along the way. As history shows, Bitcoin’s bullish phases will inevitably repeat many times. When that time comes, where will you be?