The current market trend exhibits typical year-end characteristics. Bitcoin price repeatedly tests the range of $88,000 to $89,000, with only a 1.4% increase over the past 24 hours. Although 2025 has shown impressive performance, liquidity has sharply shrunk as the holidays approach, causing the price to be tightly pinned within a narrow range of 85k-92k. This has created a subtle balance between bulls and bears.

Ethereum has performed relatively resilient, trading around $2,970, with a slight 1% increase in the past 24 hours. The total market capitalization hovers around $3 trillion, lacking clear direction overall. Interestingly, despite the stagnant prices, the Fear and Greed Index has plunged into a deep "Extreme Fear" state, lasting over 14 days and even surpassing the severity seen during the FTX collapse in 2022. However, strangely, there has been no sign of a traditional panic sell-off wave.

Today's market turning point stems from a technical event—**the expiration of a large volume of Bitcoin options**. On December 26 alone, options with a notional value of up to $23.6 billion are set to settle, marking the highest record in history. Over the past few weeks, traders have accumulated a large number of put gamma positions around 85k, while 90k serves as the defensive point for call gamma. This structure has created a classic "pinning" effect on the price. Once the options settle, gamma decay will rapidly release, potentially causing a swift breakout upward or downward. Coupled with the already thin holiday liquidity, risks are further amplified.

Institutional movements are also worth noting. Despite the price consolidating, institutional funds continue to build positions. Data shows that by 2025, institutional holdings in Bitcoin have risen to 24%, while retail investors have been net selling, with cumulative sales exceeding 200k BTC. This structural divergence reflects vastly different outlooks among various participants.