Bitcoin Cycles Past and Future: Reading the Next Rally from Patterns

Since its inception, Bitcoin has experienced intense price fluctuations. From the early stages in 2013 to the record highs in 2024, each bull run has its own background and lessons. Looking at the bitcoin cycle chart 2024, it’s clear at a glance how this digital asset has evolved.

Why Do Bitcoin Cycles Occur?

Bitcoin’s price cycles are not mere coincidences; they result from the interplay of multiple factors. The halving events (where mining rewards are halved every four years), regulatory changes, influx of institutional investors, and market psychology all interact to create a unique rhythm.

Supply restrictions are at the core of bullish markets. Bitcoin’s total supply is fixed at 21 million coins, and as the issuance rate slows down, scarcity drives up the value.

2013: Bitcoin’s First Explosive Growth

From $145 in May to $1,200 in December — approximately 730% increase

In that year, Bitcoin became the first bridge from tech enthusiasts to the general public. The Cyprus banking crisis pushed investors toward alternative assets, and media attention rapidly increased.

However, growth also revealed challenges. The largest exchange at the time, Mt. Gox, was hacked and went bankrupt in 2014. This event significantly shook trust in Bitcoin, and the subsequent market dropped by 75% from its peak.

Lesson from this period: In the early stages, technical issues and security risks were significant, highlighting the importance of developing market infrastructure.

2017: Massive Retail Investor Influx and Bubble

From $1,000 in January to nearly $20,000 in December — a 1,900% jump

2017 was the year Bitcoin entered mainstream media. The ICO boom, the rise of user-friendly trading platforms, and buzz on social media led to a surge of individual investors.

Trading volume skyrocketed from less than $200 million daily at the start of 2017 to over $15 billion by year-end. A feedback loop emerged — rising prices attracted media coverage, which drew more investors, pushing prices even higher.

Regulators responded. The SEC expressed concerns about market manipulation, and China banned ICOs and domestic exchanges. As a result, Bitcoin’s price fell over 80% from its peak in early 2018, entering a bear market.

Lesson from this period: Retail enthusiasm alone is unsustainable; regulatory frameworks are crucial for long-term growth.

2020-2021: Institutional Investors Enter in Earnest

From about $8,000 in January 2020 to over $64,000 in April 2021 — a 700% increase

Economic uncertainty from the COVID-19 pandemic, large-scale government stimulus, and inflation fears helped establish Bitcoin as “digital gold.”

This period was marked by the entry of major corporations like MicroStrategy and institutional investors. Approval of Bitcoin futures and ETF listings in multiple regions increased integration with traditional finance. Inflows from institutions exceeded $10 billion, with large corporate holdings expanding.

Meanwhile, concerns about environmental impact grew, as Bitcoin mining’s carbon footprint drew criticism. This anxiety contributed to subsequent market corrections.

Lesson from this period: Institutional participation signifies market maturity, and complex, multifaceted factors now drive prices rather than single catalysts.

2024-2025: Regulatory Approval and New Phase

From about $40,000 in January 2024 to over $93,000 in November — a 132% rise

The current bull run is supported by two major events: the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the U.S. SEC (January 2024) and the Bitcoin halving (April 2024).

ETF inflows have surpassed $28 billion, exceeding annual flows into gold ETFs. BlackRock’s iBIT ETF alone holds over 467,000 BTC, clearly indicating institutional capital inflow. Large firms like MicroStrategy added thousands of BTC in 2024, further tightening supply.

As of December 26, 2025, the BTC price is $87,120. While still below the all-time high of $126,080, market sentiment remains positive.

Change during this period: ETF approval has significantly lowered the barrier to Bitcoin investment. Investors can now avoid the hassle of direct custody and security risks, accessing Bitcoin through traditional financial institutions.

When Will the Next Bull Run Come?

Analyzing the bitcoin cycle chart 2024 reveals factors that will influence future Bitcoin markets.

1. Continuation of Halving Cycles The next halving is expected around 2028. Supply shocks every four years have historically generated bullish phases. After the 2012 halving, prices surged by 5,200%; in 2016, by 315%; and in 2020, by 230%.

2. Strategic Reserves by Governments Some U.S. lawmakers have proposed accumulating Bitcoin as a national reserve asset. Countries like Bhutan and El Salvador already hold several thousand BTC. It’s plausible that major nations will follow suit. Government-level demand could dramatically alter market size.

3. Technological Evolution of the Bitcoin Network New features like OP_CAT could enable complex operations and scaling solutions on Bitcoin. If these expand Bitcoin’s use cases from store of value to payments and DeFi, demand structures could fundamentally change.

4. Macroeconomic and Interest Rate Policies Global interest rate trends, inflation rates, and currency policies influence institutional interest in Bitcoin. Lower interest rates tend to boost demand.

Five Points to Prepare for the Bitcoin Market

1. Understand Market Cycles Historical data shows Bitcoin has clear cycles. Sharp rises are usually followed by corrections. Recognizing this rhythm helps avoid panic selling and overbuying.

2. Diversify Investments Avoid concentrating solely on Bitcoin; balance with other cryptocurrencies and traditional assets. High volatility markets require a diversified portfolio for resilience.

3. Security Measures For long-term holdings, consider transferring to hardware wallets. Keeping assets on exchanges exposes you to hacking risks.

4. Tax Planning Crypto transactions have tax implications. Understand your local tax laws and keep accurate records to prevent future issues.

5. Eliminate Emotional Decisions Market volatility amplifies fear and greed. Stick to your investment plan. Use automation tools like stop-loss orders to prevent impulsive decisions.

Summary: The Future of Bitcoin Markets

Bitcoin’s bull runs are not just speculative bubbles but are based on structural changes like regulation, technological progress, and institutional involvement. From the initial chaos in 2013 to the regulatory phase in 2024-2025, the market has matured and built a more stable foundation.

While complete prediction is impossible, paying attention to cyclical events like halvings, government reserves, and technological advances can help identify signals for the next bull run early.

The future of Bitcoin remains uncertain, but its resilience and history of recovery suggest it will continue to be a significant part of the global financial system. Vigilance, preparation, and rational judgment can turn the next rally into a major opportunity.