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The Bank of Japan's policy shift has triggered a chain reaction in global markets. Governor Ueda and other long-standing dovish officials recently announced plans to raise interest rates, sending a strong signal: rising wages and prices, inflation remaining above 2%, and the gradual exit from the negative interest rate policy. This means the arbitrage opportunities in yen interest rate differentials have significantly narrowed.
Wall Street's arbitrage positions relying on yen depreciation are under pressure—when the "yen financing" cheap borrowing machine shuts down, a wave of liquidations and selling pressure will follow. Japanese government bond yields will rise, and the global asset valuation system will also adjust accordingly.
From a market perspective, the era of abundant liquidity is coming to an end. Funding costs are rising, and volatility may increase. For crypto asset holders, the withdrawal of arbitrage capital will directly impact market liquidity, especially in trading pairs related to the yen.
However, every market restructuring also hides opportunities. Old arbitrage models break down, and new trading logic is emerging. The key is to understand which assets can withstand volatility during this global liquidity tightening cycle and which can benefit from it. Do you think your current holdings are adaptable to these changes?