Recently, many people in the crypto community have been asking the same question: When will this bear market finally bottom out? Should I keep averaging down with my funds, or just wait and see? Besides Bitcoin, are there any other assets that can survive?

I'll just give the conclusion directly, no beating around the bush. Based on the historical patterns of the larger cycle and the current market rhythm, the ultimate bottom of this downtrend cycle is most likely to appear around the end of 2026. At that time, I estimate Bitcoin's price range to be between $30,000 and $60,000.

Sounds unbelievable? Actually, not really. In past major bear markets, panic levels often exceeded everyone's expectations. Remember when it dropped from over $60,000 straight down to below $20,000? The market's psychological bottom is constantly being reset with each cycle. What looks like intense volatility now is just a "starter" compared to true extreme market conditions.

But here’s a key practical indicator worth everyone learning: the Fear Index. Most beginners only follow candlestick charts, but seasoned players always pay attention to this "barometer" of market sentiment. When the Fear Index drops to around 10, it means the market is in extreme panic. Negative news is being amplified infinitely, and people's confidence has completely collapsed. That’s the real moment of "be greedy when others are fearful."

One point to emphasize: at this stage, your strategy should be spot holdings. Never think about using leverage contracts to gamble, because even if you guess the direction correctly, in extreme volatility phases, it’s very easy to get wiped out. The cost of liquidation is not worth the risk.

After bottoming out? Don’t expect to make quick profits immediately. My methodology is "set and forget" after positioning, holding until 2029. Based on historical ratios, the peak of this upward cycle should see Bitcoin reach between $150,000 and $250,000. Waiting over two years for potentially several times the gains makes this time investment quite acceptable.

Why do I judge this way? Simply put, the crypto market is highly cyclical, roughly every four years experiencing a complete bull-bear transition. The current timing is right in the middle to late stage of the downtrend. Tracing back from the all-time high, the window for the bottom is around 2026. As long as there are no systemic black swan events, this logical chain remains valid.

Of course, all these judgments are based on inductive reasoning from historical patterns; the market will always have surprises. But as a reference framework, it can help you avoid making wrong decisions at the wrong time. The "hellish" sleepless mode is torture for retail investors, but for those with patience, it’s exactly the best opportunity to get on board.