From a historical cycle perspective: When will the next Bitcoin bull market start?

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced multiple intense price cycles. From a 730% increase in 2013 to a 1,900% surge in 2017, and then to a new high with a 132% rise in 2024, these figures reflect not random fluctuations but patterned market cycles. Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $88.94K, with market sentiment at a 50:50 balance—Is this the beginning of a new bull market, or the last frenzy before a top?

The Essence of Bitcoin Bull Markets: The Clash of Scarcity and Sentiment Cycles

Each major Bitcoin rally follows a similar underlying logic: halving events causing supply tightening + increased demand driven by institutional funds or policy changes.

After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin rose 5,200% within a year; post-2016 halving, it increased 315%; after the 2020 halving, it surged 230%. This is no coincidence—when block rewards halve, the new Bitcoin issuance is cut in half, sharply reducing tradable supply. If, at the same time, large capital inflows occur (institutional investment, policy support, or market sentiment shifts), a breakout becomes a probabilistic event.

But this time is different. The halving in April 2024 has already occurred, and what we see is not a rapid ascent but a relatively gentle double-layered rise—from $40,000 at the start of the year to the current $88.94K. This change in pace is backed by an upgrade in mechanisms.

ETF Approval: From “Retail Game” to “Institutional Legitimacy”

In January 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a spot Bitcoin ETF, marking a watershed moment. Since then, capital inflows have exceeded expectations: by November, Bitcoin ETF inflows surpassed $2.8 billion, far exceeding gold ETF inflows.

What does this mean? Previously, investors had to register on exchanges, manage private keys, and face security risks to buy Bitcoin. Now, through ETFs, large fund managers, pension funds, and corporations can participate in Bitcoin trading as easily as stocks. This convenience is transforming Bitcoin from a “crypto asset” into a “mainstream financial product.”

The current circulating market cap of Bitcoin has reached $1.77 trillion. The market landscape has shifted from an “who buys first makes money” arbitrage era to a “long-term allocation” competition. This explains why the price growth rate has slowed—large capital inflows tend to smooth volatility rather than cause explosive surges.

Policy Trends: From “Regulatory Suppression” to “Strategic Recognition”

The most significant political event of 2024 is Donald Trump’s return to U.S. politics. While political judgments are beyond this article’s scope, the market’s expectation of a “pro-crypto” stance is already reflected in prices. Meanwhile, Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the “Bitcoin Act of 2024,” suggesting the U.S. government purchase 1 million BTC within five years as strategic reserves—shifting from “ban” to “include as national assets.”

Small countries are already acting: Bhutan holds 13,000 BTC through government investment firms; El Salvador, despite adopting Bitcoin as legal tender, holds only 5,875 BTC. If major nations follow suit, Bitcoin’s “national reserve asset” status will be revalued.

Key Signals for Detecting the Start of a Bull Market

History shows that Bitcoin bull markets often start when three indicators align:

1. On-chain Indicators

• Bitcoin balances on exchanges are continuously decreasing (indicating accumulation, not selling)
• Stablecoin inflows into exchanges are increasing (suggesting accumulation or bottom-fishing)
• Currently, the number of active addresses holding Bitcoin has reached 55.1 million, a new all-time high

2. Technical Signals

• RSI (Relative Strength Index) breaks above 70 and then retreats to the 50-70 range (indicating sustained upward momentum without overheating)
• Bitcoin price stabilizes above key moving averages (50-day and 200-day)

3. Market Sentiment

• Trading volume follows price increases (high price with low volume signals risk)
• Current 24-hour trading volume is $880M, which is relatively low compared to the $1.77 trillion market cap, indicating limited large trades and room for further growth, but also no signs of euphoria

When Will the Next Bull Run Occur?

Based on historical patterns and current conditions, several potential triggers can be outlined:

Near-term (3-6 months)

• Will spot Bitcoin ETF inflows surpass $4 billion?
• Will the U.S. implement any official Bitcoin reserve plans?
• Is the market’s expectation of rate cuts in 2025 becoming more solid?

Mid-term (6-12 months)

• Global central bank policy shifts (returning from rate hikes to cuts)
• Geopolitical events increasing the safe-haven appeal of “digital gold”
• New technological upgrades (e.g., OP_CAT) approved for implementation, expanding Layer-2 solutions

Long-term (post-2026)

• The next halving event in 2028 (a “supply tightening event” every four years)
• More countries adopting Bitcoin as a national asset, following El Salvador or Bhutan

How Should Ordinary Investors Prepare?

Step 1: Understand your risk appetite If you cannot tolerate Bitcoin dropping from $88.94K to $40K, then full allocation is unsuitable. If you can, current levels are not necessarily overvalued.

Step 2: Use dollar-cost averaging rather than all-in Add positions during 10-15% market corrections, rather than waiting for a major crash. History shows that waiting for the “bottom” often causes missed gains.

Step 3: Prioritize ETF or exchange-traded products for participation They offer safety and tax advantages, worth paying a small premium for convenience. Avoid risking private key management just to save on fees.

Step 4: Continuously monitor on-chain data and market signals Most retail investors lose money not because they buy wrong but because they sell at the wrong time. Learn to identify when the market is entering a “mania phase” (surging volume, bullish sentiment, new entrants), which is often the riskiest.

Step 5: Plan for tax implications Bitcoin gains are taxable in most countries. Consulting a professional early is more cost-effective than paying taxes late.

Risks Not to Be Ignored

Common pitfalls in the current bull environment:

• Leverage traps: High leverage trading can lead to rapid liquidations during volatility
• FOMO psychology: When everyone discusses Bitcoin, late retail entrants often buy at the top
• Regulatory black swans: Severe restrictions in a single country (e.g., bans on institutional holdings) can trigger sharp corrections
• Technical risks: While Bitcoin’s network is secure, exchanges and wallets still carry risks
• Macroeconomic downturn: If the global economy plunges into recession, even “digital gold” may struggle

Final Judgment: When Will the Bull Market Start?

If we define a “bull market” as a period where Bitcoin rises over 100% within 12 months, then the current move (from $40K to $88.94K, a 122% increase) has already entered a weak bull phase. But this is just the beginning.

A stronger bull market typically only starts when all these conditions are met:

1. Institutional capital inflows are stable and sustained (not just one-off)
2. Clear positive policy signals emerge (not just market expectations)
3. Market sentiment shifts from balanced to clearly bullish (current 50:50 sentiment has not fully reflected optimism)
4. On-chain data confirms accumulation phase has ended (to be observed)

Based on these criteria, the next more robust phase may occur in the first half to mid-2025, likely triggered by official U.S. announcements of Bitcoin reserves or the global central bank rate cut cycle.

But remember: historically, every major Bitcoin surge has been followed by deep corrections. The right attitude toward investing in Bitcoin is not “bet on the next big rise” but “understand the cycle, allocate reasonably, and hold long-term.”