How long is the Bitcoin bull market cycle? An analysis of historical data

The Truth About Bull Market Cycles: Evolution from 2013 to 2024

Many investors often ask: How long will a bull market last? There is no fixed answer to this question, but history can reveal patterns. Bitcoin’s price fluctuations follow predictable cycle patterns, with each cycle varying in length and strength, primarily influenced by halving events, institutional participation, and market sentiment.

From 2013 to 2024, Bitcoin has experienced multiple bull markets, each reflecting the increasing maturity of the market. Early speculative bull markets (such as the 730% increase in 2013) tend to be short-lived and intense, while recent institutional-driven bull markets (like the 700% rise in 2020-2021) are more stable and prolonged.

Comparison of Bull Market Durations Across Eras

2013: Short-term surge, long-term correction (duration: about 7 months of growth)

Bitcoin soared from $145 in May 2013 to $1,200 in December, with the entire upward cycle lasting about 7 months. This bull was driven by the Cyprus banking crisis and early adopters flooding in, but was followed by a year-long bear market, with prices dropping to $300.

Key Data:

• Upward cycle: 7 months
• Increase: +730%
• Subsequent correction: -75% (lasting about 1 year)

This bull market illustrates an important pattern: early market bull runs, while impressive in gains, tend to have significant pullbacks and shorter durations.

2017: Media-driven leading rally (duration: about 11 months of growth)

2017 was the “mainstream breakthrough year” for crypto. Bitcoin rose from $1,000 to $20,000 by year-end, with an 11-month cycle, during which daily trading volume surged from $200 million to $15 billion.

This bull was extended by the ICO craze and retail investor influx. However, the correction starting in early 2018 was equally intense—an 84% decline within 6 months, dropping to $3,200 by the end of 2018.

Key Data:

• Upward cycle: 11 months
• Increase: +1,900%
• Subsequent correction: -84% (about 1 year)

2020-2021: The long institutional era (duration: about 15 months of growth)

This bull market began brewing in January 2020, driven by giants like MicroStrategy and Square, pushing Bitcoin from $8,000 steadily up to $64,000 in April 2021. The cycle lasted 15 months, significantly longer than previous cycles.

The entry of institutional investors extended the bull cycle. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs and futures provided safer entry channels for large capital, reducing extreme volatility. Nonetheless, a mid-2021 correction of -53% also occurred.

Key Data:

• Upward cycle: 15 months
• Increase: +700%
• Mid-cycle correction: -53% (July 2021)

2024-2025: The new bull market in the ETF era (ongoing)

Currently, the bull market is driven by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs (January 2024) and the April halving event. As of November 2024, Bitcoin has risen from $40,000 at the start of the year to $93,000, a 132% increase. The latest price data shows BTC at $88.77K, indicating market consolidation at high levels.

Unlike previous cycles driven by a single factor, this bull combines:

• Regulatory approval: Spot ETF lowers entry barriers
• Supply shocks: Halving reduces new supply every four years
• Policy expectations: Governments’ interest in strategic reserves (e.g., senator’s proposal to buy 1 million BTC this year)

Key Data:

• Upward cycle: at least 12 months (still ongoing)
• Increase: +132% (from $40K to $88.77K)
• Institutional inflows: net inflow of over $28 billion into spot ETFs

How Long Can the Bull Market Last?

Based on four major bull markets, the length of the upward cycle correlates positively with institutional participation:

Conclusions:

1. Institutional involvement = longer bull cycles: When institutional funds enter, cycles tend to extend to 10-15 months. Pure retail markets typically top out in 3-7 months.

2. Halving cycles are powerful triggers: Each four-year halving tends to trigger a new bull market. However, the start of the bull is not exactly on halving day but usually 3-6 months before, as market expectations are priced in early.

3. Market maturity reduces volatility: The maximum drawdown in 2013 was 84%, whereas in 2020-2021 it was only 53%. This indicates that as market participation diversifies, extreme volatility diminishes.

How Far Can the 2024-2025 Bull Market Go?

Based on current supply, demand, and macro environment:

Optimistic scenario: The current bull could last until mid-2025 (about 6-8 months remaining)

• ETF holdings could rebound (currently over 467,000 BTC)
• Post-halving, 6-9 months often mark price peaks
• Government strategic reserve proposals, if implemented, could inject new demand

Conservative estimate: Peak in Q1 2025

• Current prices are approaching some historical highs
• Changes in macro interest rates could end the bull early
• Leverage positions might trigger large liquidations when gains reach 300%

Risk factors:

• Regulatory variables: While US policies are friendly, global regulation is tightening
• Macroeconomic shocks: Recession or double-dip inflation could dampen risk asset demand
• FOMO bubbles: Retail investors rushing in often mark the end of a bull market

How to Make Decisions During a Bull Cycle

Identify bull market stages with three signals:

1. Early stage (initial rise):

   • On-chain wallet activity surges
   • Stablecoin inflows into exchanges increase
   • Exchange Bitcoin reserves decline (accumulation by investors)

2. Mid-stage (accelerated rise):

   • Social media buzz explodes
   • Mainstream media coverage intensifies
   • Retail investors enter (FOMO is evident)

3. Late stage (pre-peak):

   • Futures premium reaches extreme levels (overly optimistic speculation)
   • Highest proportion of new investors in history
   • Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeds 70 (overbought)

Investment advice:

• Early bull: Gradually build positions, hold long-term (lowest time cost)
• Mid-bull: Moderate additions, set take-profit points (reserve 50-70% of position)
• Late bull: Reduce holdings, shift to observation (protect profits)

Historical Patterns and Future Predictions

Bitcoin’s bull cycles show clear patterns:

Halving → Supply shock → Institutional attention → ETF/derivatives launch → Bull market initiation → 6-15 months of rise → Institutions take profits → Bear market begins

This cycle, driven by ETFs and led by institutions, is expected to continue until mid-2025. But regardless of when the bull ends, the key for investors is understanding the cycle’s essence—all bull markets will end, but during each interval, institutional participation increases, and extreme risks decrease.

For long-term holders, how long the bull lasts is less important; understanding the structural changes behind each cycle and adjusting strategies accordingly is crucial. The bull will eventually end, but Bitcoin’s position as a digital asset will only strengthen.