Bitcoin December Trend Prediction: The market believes the probability of falling below 80,000 is only 16%, and breaking above 100,000 is similarly rare.

2025-12-24 03:14:08

On December 24, there are considerable differences in the prediction market regarding the recent trend of Bitcoin. Data shows that the market participants who believe Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 in December are in the minority, with a probability of about 16%. If we look at a more pessimistic scenario - falling below $75,000, this probability is only about 5%. However, on the other side, the voices expecting a rise above $100,000 are also similar, with a probability of about 5%. Overall, the market's expectations for Bitcoin are still relatively cautious, and most people seem to believe that there will not be extreme fluctuations in the short term.

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MEVHunter

· 2025-12-27 00:01

nah the market's sleeping on this one... 16% odds on a sub-80k dump feels like everyone's staring at the same orderbook. mempool's not even twitching yet

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DaoDeveloper

· 2025-12-26 21:39

honestly the 16% breakdown feels off... have you looked at the actual merkle tree of these prediction markets? usually the edge cases cluster way tighter than that

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LiquidationHunter

· 2025-12-26 20:49

16% drop below 80,000? Still cautious, this is just a gambler's self-soothing.

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MerkleDreamer

· 2025-12-24 09:52

This market cycle is just repeatedly tormenting us within the 80,000 to 100,000 range, really pointless. --- Falling from 16% to 80,000? Feels like the probability is overestimated. --- It's always cautious expectations, tired of this phrase, the market turns around just as predicted. --- A 5% chance to reach 100,000? Who's really footing the bill? --- If the market is so aligned, it's better to look at on-chain data for real insights. --- Sounds good, but actually no one dares to place bets. --- Wait, these percentages add up to less than 50%, what about the rest? --- Non-extreme market conditions are the most torturous; I prefer wild surges and crashes. --- Market predictors are becoming more cautious; last year someone dared to call 200,000. --- Short-term non-extremes, long-term madness, just like in previous years.

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GasOptimizer

· 2025-12-24 03:43

16% falls below 80,000, 5% breaks above 100,000... this data distribution is quite interesting, where are all those large heads in the middle? --- It's another probability game of the prediction market, feels like just betting on market sentiment --- 5% breaking above 100,000? This arbitrage space needs to be calculated carefully, can the leverage rate hold up? --- Market "cautious"? I see it as still on the sidelines, once it breaks the level, the movement will be significant --- 16% vs 5% probability setting, why does it feel like the prediction market is also playing with capital efficiency? --- So the core consensus is to just lie flat in the range, in this kind of market, we should pay attention to on-chain evidence and large investors' movements --- What's the use of looking at prediction probabilities, we still need to watch the exchange's real trading volume resistance level

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Rugman_Walking

· 2025-12-24 03:42

16% fall below 80,000? That means it's highly likely to continue oscillating, boring.

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SchroedingerAirdrop

· 2025-12-24 03:33

Hey, wait a minute, the probability of falling to 80,000 is 16%, but rising to 100,000 is only 5%? This logic seems a bit off. --- It's again this kind of ambiguous prediction; anyway, there are always people making money regardless of the movement. --- Wait, does the market really see it this way? It doesn't feel that optimistic. --- 16% chance of dropping below 80,000? I feel like the risk is much greater than that. Where did this data come from? --- Interestingly, the extreme probabilities for both falling and rising are the same, indicating that everyone is betting on the middle range. --- To say caution means no one dares to place bets, so we just continue to oscillate. --- I really don't understand why the probabilities for extreme bearish and bullish situations are similar. Is this what they call market Consensus? --- I just want to know if this 16% is reliable; anyway, I don't trust this prediction market.

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SnapshotBot

· 2025-12-24 03:24

Is a 16% fall below 80,000? Sounds like the market is still quite optimistic, but I feel this data might be lagging behind. Wait, a 5% chance of going up to 100,000 seems too low, why do I feel like it's being held hostage by dumping expectations? To be honest, this wave of market fluctuations is just torturing people between 80,000 and 100,000 repeatedly, no one can make big money. Most people are just watching, and that's the scariest part. Once the Consensus breaks, it could turn into chaos in minutes. Every day predictions go back and forth, it’s better to just pick a direction and stick with it; anyway, hindsight is always 20/20.

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ColdWalletGuardian

· 2025-12-24 03:19

Did 16% fall below 80,000? That means the market is actually quite optimistic, right? There are really not many people who are truly pessimistic.

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ChainWallflower

· 2025-12-24 03:16

16% fall below 80,000? It feels like the market is still a bit timid, when something really happens the probability will spike instantly.

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Bitcoin December Trend Prediction: The market believes the probability of falling below 80,000 is only 16%, and breaking above 100,000 is similarly rare.

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Bitcoin December Trend Prediction: The market believes the probability of falling below 80,000 is only 16%, and breaking above 100,000 is similarly rare.

Trending Topics

Gate2025AnnualReport

BitcoinSix-DayRally

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My2026FirstPost

Hot Gate Fun

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Ra Ra

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阿爸爸爸

爹来了

2026

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pepe1

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Your First Words Matter! Share your first post on and split $10,000 in New Year rewards. Post with #My2026FirstPost to share your New Year wish 2026U Position Voucher, Gate New Year boxes, F1 Red Bull merch await you! Ends on Jan 15, 2026, 16:00 UTC 2026 starts with this post!

Your First Words Matter!
Share your first post on and split $10,000 in New Year rewards.
Post with #My2026FirstPost to share your New Year wish
2026U Position Voucher, Gate New Year boxes, F1 Red Bull merch await you!
Ends on Jan 15, 2026, 16:00 UTC
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