$BTC 1. Price Movements and Market Sentiment

Looking back at data from the beginning of the year, BTC experienced strong growth in Q2 and Q3, at times reaching impressive growth rates before entering a correction phase in November and December. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating around $91,000 - $94,000.
Market sentiment (Fear & Greed Index) is at a Neutral level. This is a common state when advisors are taking "year-end profits" to settle all accounts, while awaiting new signals from the major central banks' currency lists for 2026.
2. Macroeconomic Factors Influencing the Market
The strength of the USD (DXY) and the Fed's interest rates remain key indicators for BTC inflows. In 2025, as controls gradually eased, the liberalization of monetary policy benefited risky assets like Bitcoin. However, geopolitical instability in some regions and increasingly stringent regulations from the EU and the US are creating significant headwinds.

The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has altered the market structure. No longer a game for small individual advisors, Bitcoin is now heavily influenced by established financial regimes. This holding of large amounts of BTC helps to mitigate extreme popularity but also makes BTC prices more sensitive to market fluctuations compared to the stock market (especially the Nasdaq technology sector).

3. Technical Analysis and Trend Shortening
On the weekly chart, BTC maintains an upward trend structure, remaining above key moving averages (EMA 50, EMA 200). However, in the short term (Daily timeframe), we have witnessed the emergence of ecological zones around the $98,000 price point.

• Club scenario: If BTC breaks and closes above the $95,000 region with significant trading volume, the target towards the crucial psychological milestone of $100,000 by early 2026 will be achieved.

• Cautionary scenario: If selling pressure continues, BTC could retest the hardware support at $85,000 - $88,000. This would be an ideal "accumulation" area for those who missed the previous rally.

4. Conclusion for investors
Bitcoin by the end of 2025 is no longer a purely speculative asset; it has established itself as "Digital Gold". For long-term investors, year-end corrections are often opportunities for accumulation (DCA). However, for short-term traders, risk management and stop-loss placement are crucial due to the typically reduced liquidity during any holiday season.

We are entering a critical transition period. Will Bitcoin break into six figures, or will it require a longer period of accumulation? The answer lies in the flow of "whale" money and major economic decisions in the coming quarter.