2025-12-05 02:21:33

Prediction markets are heating up around MicroStrategy's index status. Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 61% probability that the company gets kicked out of the MSCI index before March wraps up.

This isn't just random speculation—it reflects growing concerns about how index providers view firms with heavy crypto exposure on their balance sheets. The betting odds have been climbing as volatility persists, and the March 31 deadline is creating a focal point for market participants trying to front-run potential rebalancing flows.

If the delisting actually happens, we could see forced selling pressure from passive funds tracking the index. Worth monitoring how this plays out over the next few weeks.

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LucidSleepwalker

· 15h ago

61% probability? What are those people at Polymarket betting on this time, just feels like hype. If passive funds really dump, retail investors will have to pick up the slack again, damn. MicroStrategy holds so much crypto, does MSCI really dare to kick them out? Can't wait to watch the show. The deadline is the end of March, still a long way to go, these odds are probably going to change. For a company with such large crypto exposure to be rejected by the index provider, honestly, it's a bit ridiculous.

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GweiWatcher

· 15h ago

MSTR kicked out of MSCI? A 61% probability, those odds are just too tempting... I can't even imagine the chain reaction of passive funds selling off.

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SilentObserver

· 15h ago

61% probability? Those odds are a bit risky, feels like we're just betting on MSCI's mood. Now if the passive funds start dumping, that's something worth watching—just waiting for the big show at the end of March. MicroStrategy's move this time is pretty intense; it's a real test of faith for the HODL crowd. Is the index provider's move really about risk prevention, or is it creating more risk? Hard to say. If they really get kicked out, will the chain reaction be even harsher than expected?

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StealthDeployer

· 16h ago

It would be ridiculous if MSTR gets kicked out. What are these index providers doing...

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CexIsBad