2025-12-04 13:22:54

Starting at 8:30 PM tonight, the US is set to release a wave of economic data all at once. It’s like pressing a high-voltage defibrillator directly onto the market’s heart.

Here’s my straightforward view: this isn’t a routine data release—it’s a live-fire reconnaissance to test whether the Fed will cut rates. The market is like a pressure cooker tonight, and it’ll probably blow.

Let’s look at jobs first. US companies have been laying people off like crazy lately, with over 1.1 million layoffs so far. The wave of layoffs in tech and government just won’t stop. If tonight’s Challenger job cuts report and initial jobless claims (last time: 216,000) come in worse than expected, the market will get hyped immediately—bad data means the Fed is forced to inject liquidity.

This kind of “good news from pain” can give Bitcoin a short-term bounce, but don’t forget, the underlying logic is that the economy is heading downhill.

Jobs aren’t the only thing to watch. The Supply Chain Pressure Index and EIA natural gas storage numbers directly impact whether inflation will flare up. If logistics are jammed and energy is tight, inflation expectations rise, the Fed has to slam the brakes on rate cuts, and risk assets like crypto will get hit hard. On the flip side, smooth supply chains and ample energy mean rate cut expectations can keep building.

What’s the trickiest part? The market will be schizophrenic tonight: on one hand hoping for bad job data to force the Fed’s hand, on the other hand fearing an inflation rebound will kill any chance of rate cuts. This tug-of-war in expectations is the perfect recipe for major volatility. Bitcoin will likely swing wildly—direction? Who knows.

On the trading side, remember these points:

$93,000 is a key level to defend. If it holds, sentiment is still intact; if it breaks, next stop is $90,500.

Before and after the data release, market nerves will be stretched tight. High leverage? Don’t touch it.

The real trend will come from the next Fed meeting and the full nonfarm payrolls report—tonight’s moves might just be an appetizer.

Stay alert and flexible. On nights with this much news, risk control is a thousand times more important than predictions.

BTC-1.64%

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LiquidationWatcher

· 2h ago

High leverage players are probably going to get liquidated tonight; if 93,000 can't hold, it's game over. It's a schizophrenic night in crypto—bad data is actually considered bullish? This logic is wild. Job cuts have broken 1.1 million, and the Fed actually dares to try cutting rates? This market is a pressure cooker ready to explode. As soon as the supply chain gets blocked, inflation will spike—who would dare touch risk assets then? The most terrifying thing is the split in expectations. With Bitcoin swinging wildly tonight, nobody's making money. To put it simply, it's a bet on the Fed's mentality: if things are bad, they'll inject liquidity; if good, they'll tighten. This kind of binary choice is the easiest way to get rugged. Keep an eye on 90,500—if that breaks, it's going down even further, with no bottom in sight. Don't make a move before the data drops. Risk management always comes first; trying to predict this stuff tonight is deadly.

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DAOdreamer

· 12-04 13:53

Schizophrenic market, whoever dares to use high leverage is basically giving money away. --- If we can't hold 93k, we're done for. --- Bad data means more liquidity? I really can't follow this logic. Sacrificing the economy for price pumps is a huge loss. --- If inflation rises and the rate cut dream is shattered, this group of risk assets in crypto will be hit first, no escape. --- Risk control > predictions, that's the real truth. Everything else is just gambling. --- Once the employment data is out, the market is bound to go split personality. Get ready for a dump. --- Rate cuts are only possible if supply chains are smooth. If they're blocked, nothing else matters. --- Tonight's volatility—just treat it as an appetizer, the real main course is still coming. --- I agree with not using high leverage, but don't be too timid either. Opportunities might just be in that split second. --- If the 90,500 support line breaks, we'll have to see the world with new eyes.

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AirdropNinja

· 12-04 13:45

Oh no, tonight's data is going to trigger another bloodbath. This schizophrenic market is the worst—if 93000 can't hold, it's going to plunge straight down. High leverage really is a death wish. Risk management always comes first—I've learned that much. Wait, the market can still go up even after laying off 1.1 million people? The economy really is doomed.

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SigmaValidator

· 12-04 13:44

If 93000 breaks, I'll just go to sleep. No need to stay up tonight.

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MrDecoder

· 12-04 13:43

The data tonight is explosive. If 93000 can't hold, it's really going to be tough. Wait, isn't this logic reversed? Only with bad employment data will the Fed start easing, so the coin price should go up. Definitely stay away from high leverage. I suffered a huge loss from that last time. To be honest, predicting the direction now is just gambling. Better to wait for the nonfarm payrolls and see. If the market is schizophrenic, we’ll just go with the flow. As long as risk control is in place, it's fine.

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MEV_Whisperer

· 12-04 13:35

If we can't hold 93000, we're done. We really can't afford to gamble on tonight's data.

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ImpermanentSage

· 12-04 13:23

If 93000 can't hold, I'll go straight to coins😅

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