#数字货币市场洞察 The US ADP employment data unexpectedly delivered its worst results in two years—this time it’s not a drill.

Last month, private sector jobs didn’t just fail to increase, but actually saw a net loss of 32,000 positions—a number that completely caught the market off guard. Wall Street traders quickly adjusted their bets, and the probability of a rate cut in December has soared to nearly 90%. Judging by this momentum, the Fed’s policy pivot may come even sooner than expected.

Looking deeper, weak employment data is often a precursor to a turning point in the economic cycle. Companies start tightening up on hiring, and naturally, consumer confidence wavers as well. If this trend continues, next year may see more than just a one-off rate cut—consecutive easing isn’t out of the question. For those holding $BTC and $ETH, improved liquidity expectations are generally a bullish signal, but you should also be prepared for market volatility at the early stage of a policy shift.

History tells us that every major monetary policy turnaround brings a round of asset repricing. The key question now is: Can the Fed achieve a soft landing without triggering a recession? In this game, timing is more important than just getting the direction right. What’s your take on how this data will impact the market going forward?