2025-12-04 06:20:32

Ethereum just broke above $3,200 earlier this morning, but signals of a rate hike from Japan quickly followed, causing global capital flows to instantly tighten up. Now ETH is hovering around $3,190, having retraced nearly 50 points from today’s highs. Is this pullback a buying opportunity, or the start of a new downward trend?

**Ambivalence in the News**

On the positive side, Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade officially went live early this morning. This is the second major network upgrade in 2025, directly raising the block gas limit to 60 million and reducing Layer 2 transaction costs by 40%-60%. This isn’t a minor tweak—the boost in on-chain processing capacity is a real long-term benefit for ecosystem expansion.

But on the other hand, trouble is brewing. The Bank of Japan’s governor just stated that while the “neutral interest rate is hard to pinpoint,” nominal rates still need to be raised. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has surged to its highest level since 2007. What does this mean? Capital may flow back into bonds for safety, squeezing liquidity for risk assets.

**Technical Chart Signals**

On the 4-hour chart, ETH is still in a rebound channel overall. The MACD indicator has already formed a golden cross below the zero line, with bullish momentum building up.

However, the RSI is now in overbought territory, increasing the chances of a short-term pullback. There are two key resistance levels to watch above: 3,370 and 3,640—historically both areas where price tends to encounter resistance.

For support, first watch the 3,100-2,870 range. If that breaks, the next key support is around 2,620. The current rally on strong volume is a positive sign, but if macro liquidity keeps getting drained, could this rebound turn out to be a “false breakout?” That’s the biggest thing to be wary of right now.

ETH-1.86%

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SleepyValidator

· 12-04 06:50

Every time Japan stirs things up, ETH reverses course. This round of upgrade bullishness just got slapped back down by macro factors. I’m really fed up with these fake breakouts—it's always the same playbook. We have to hold 3100, guys. If it drops further, things will get troublesome. Let’s wait and see how long the MACD can hold up. Entering now is basically just out of spite. Yet again, "technical looks good but fundamentals don’t"—classic trap. Layer2 fee reduction is a long-term positive, no doubt. It’s just the impatient ones who will have to take losses. The Bank of Japan really is the nemesis of risk assets. Funds are definitely flowing into the bond market. Doesn’t this move look just like last year’s fake V-shaped rebound? Kinda worried. Short term, just defend 3100. If it breaks, admit defeat—don’t try to fight it. Conflicting indicators—it sounds like the prelude to a consolidation, honestly.

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gas_fee_therapy

· 12-04 06:50

When Japan raises interest rates, the whole world has to shake along. We’ve seen this move way too many times. Raising the gas limit to 60 million sounds nice, but nobody cares about that now—they’re just thinking about where the money is going. There’s indeed a high chance of a fake breakout; the real problem only comes if 3100 gets broken. The Fusaka upgrade should have been a story, but it got interrupted by just a single sentence from the Bank of Japan. Incredible. This is the kind of situation that really tests your mindset. Luckily, I’ve long gotten used to the thrill of being harvested. The MACD golden cross in this rebound channel looks pretty good, but the RSI is already overbought. Feels like a correction could happen at any moment. With macro liquidity tightening, technical signals are just clouds in the wind. Let’s wait for 3100 and talk then. There’s still 2870 as a bottom, at least that gives us some psychological preparation. Breaking above 3200 didn’t even last an hour—what other signals do you want? Feels like this round is just accumulation, waiting for the next wave to come and harvest.

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MEVSupportGroup

· 12-04 06:34

Japan is stirring things up again, as always—finally a breakout, and they immediately push it back, damn it. The probability of a false breakout seems pretty high. I'll just wait and see this time. The Fusaka upgrade is indeed good, but it can't withstand this kind of macro blow. If 3100 can't hold, I'll just cut my losses—I've had enough.

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airdrop_whisperer

· 12-04 06:27

Japan is stirring things up again. This rebound feels a bit weak. --- Has gas really dropped this much? But who cares, one macro hit and it's all gone. --- 3100 must hold; if it drops further, it'll be really awkward. --- Even with such strong upgrade news, it's still getting dumped. Just shows short-term funds are too fragile. --- The odds of a fake breakout seem pretty high. Feels like another shakeout is coming. --- The Bank of Japan really picked the worst time to speak up. Are they screwing us over? --- Good news can't outweigh the bad. That's just how this market is. --- A 50-point drop is nothing; 2620 is the real test. --- Even with Layer2 costs dropping so much, no one's speculating. The ecosystem is still way too quiet. --- When macro liquidity dries up, technical indicators are just for show.

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NervousFingers

· 12-04 06:24

Every time Japan raises rates, the whole world trembles. This trick is old. The Fusaka upgrade is positive news, but nobody cares now—they're only watching the US dollar interest rate cycle. --- The probability of a fake breakout is too high. As soon as there's a macro liquidity drain, 3100 will break directly. Don't even think about getting in now—it's just a runner-up's fate. --- What's the point of a 40% drop in gas costs if all the liquidity is flowing to the bond market? Even ecosystem positives can't save this round. --- With RSI this obviously overbought, you're still aiming for 3370? I think we'll most likely pull back to around 3100—that's when it will really be time to get in. --- Every upgrade pumps and then falls back, and this time is no exception. As soon as the Bank of Japan speaks, it's all for nothing. --- I've noted the 2620 support level. If it really drops there, then I'll consider building a position. --- Rebound channel? Looks more like a last sprint before turning down, especially with macro factors this tight. --- Even after the Fusaka upgrade news is out, the price can't move up—which shows market sentiment has already collapsed. Bearish.

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