$BTC

Why this monthly open dump is Bullish - backed by data.

Price just dropped a whopping 5.5% on the opening of the month, which gives more reason to look for longs than not to.

The monthly high is currently P1, of which we can say the following:
- 94.1% of monthly P1s form later
- 97.6% of monthly P1s have a bigger wick

In simple terms: if the current monthly high were to hold, then it would be put in unusually early and unusually close to the monthly open.

If you don’t know what P1 is, comment P1 and I’ll send you a simple explanation.

Given the stats, this monthly high is a weak high. It doesn’t mean it can’t hold, but the odds point toward it getting taken.

Therefore, my main thesis for now is that the monthly high will not hold this month, and thus is targeted.

My invalidation for this idea is a significant decrease in P1 Flip Risk metrics (currently sitting at 87.1% for time and 30.9% for distance).

These metrics will be auto-updated upon taking highs/lows so I will just follow the stats. But for now, taking out the monthly high is more likely.

If you want these stats across 90 crypto assets and 6 timeframes, they’re all in the @BrighterData platform. Today is the last day to get yearly access through our BF sale at 40 percent off.