Will the gold price really rise to 5,000 Dollar? Analyzing future market trends with data.

Summarizing the predicted numbers looks like this

When looking at the long-term forecast for gold prices, a rather bullish outlook is dominant.

• 2025: Possibility of surpassing $3,000
• 2026: Aiming for around $3,900
• 2030: Aiming for a peak of $5,000

However, these numbers are not mere wishes; they are based on macroeconomic indicators and technical analysis.

Why Does Gold Go Up? Three Essential Reasons

1. Inflation expectations are rising.

The biggest driver of gold is inflation expectations. Many people think that “gold will rise in a recession,” but that's incorrect. Looking at the actual data, the correlation between gold and inflation expectations (TIP ETF) is very strong.

Since the beginning of 2024, gold has started to reach all-time highs in every currency around the world. This is not just a story about the US dollar, but rather a simultaneous achievement of new highs globally, including the euro, pound, and yen. This phenomenon serves as the “ultimate confirmation” of the strength of the gold market.

2. The monetary base and CPI are rising

Both M2 (Monetary Base) and CPI (Consumer Price Index) are steadily rising. When these two indicators rise together, it creates the best environment for gold. The fact that the divergence between M2, CPI, and gold prices began to correct in 2024 strongly suggests a bullish scenario ahead.

3. A bullish pattern has formed technically.

Looking at the long-term chart over the past 50 years, a bullish reversal pattern known as “cup and handle” was formed between 2013 and 2023. Since this pattern was formed over an extended period, the subsequent upward trend tends to be strong.

Historically, a reversal after a long integration period leads to a stronger rise.

Leading indicators also suggest a favorable environment for gold

currency market

The Euro (EUR/USD) is in a long-term bullish trend. Gold has an inverse correlation with the dollar, so if the Euro rises, gold tends to rise as well. The current EUR/USD setting is constructive and creates a favorable environment for gold.

bond market

The 20-year government bond reached a bottom in mid-2023. After interest rates peaked, gold was finally able to rise. In the future, a global reduction in interest rates is expected, which will become a tailwind for gold as yields decrease.

Warning signals in the futures market

In the COMEX gold futures market, the commercial players' net short position is at a very high level. This “stretch” position may appear at first glance to be a limiting factor for upward movement. However, when combined with other indicators (inflation expectations, chart patterns), a gradual but steady upward scenario emerges.

The “Consensus” Seen from the Predictions of Major Financial Institutions

Summarizing the 2025 gold price forecasts from various institutions, they are surprisingly converging.

Almost all major financial institutions are converging within a band of $2,700 to $2,800. This signifies the formation of a consensus.

However, InvestingHaven is more bullish and predicts around $3,100. This difference is because they place more emphasis on inflation expectations and accelerating central bank demand.

Gold vs Silver: Which Should You Invest In?

Looking at the historical gold-silver ratio (the price ratio of gold to silver), there tends to be an explosive rise in silver in the latter half of a bullish market for gold.

The current chart shows a very bullish cup and handle pattern forming for silver. There is a high likelihood that silver will accelerate in 2024-2025.

Investment Strategy:

• Stability-oriented → Gold
• Targeting explosive power → Silver
• Balanced type → Both

What if the prediction is wrong?

The only condition under which the bullish scenario becomes invalid is if the gold price drops below $1,770. However, that probability is considered to be very low.

Reliability Shown Through Past Achievements

The research team at InvestingHaven has accurately predicted gold prices for five consecutive years. The only exception was the 2021 prediction ($2,200 to $2,400), which did not materialize that year. This means the success rate is approximately 83%.

What will happen after 2030?

The macroeconomic environment changes significantly every ten years, making predictions beyond 2030 inherently impossible. However, under normal scenarios, the peak forecast until 2030 is expected to be between $4,500 and $5,000, with $5,000 likely becoming a psychologically important level.

What is the possibility of gold reaching $10,000? It's low, but not zero. It could happen if inflation becomes uncontrollable like in the 1970s, or if extreme fear prevails due to a geopolitical crisis.

Summary: The gold market is most likely to be in a “mild bullish” trend.

Long-term charts, macro indicators, leading indicators, and positioning in the futures market—all of these suggest a gradual but steady rise in gold prices over the next few years.

Rather than a sudden surge, a gradual increase to $3,000 in 2025 and $3,900 in 2026 can be considered the most likely scenario.