From losses to profits: how I earned in crypto by following one simple formula

The story is not about luck — it's about discipline. I lost 8 million in 2018, but I returned and doubled my account. Here’s why it happened and how you can avoid my mistakes.

Why I Lost Everything in 2017-2018

During the altcoin boom, I made 3 million due to greed, not skills. The problems were typical:

• Bought at the peak, sold at the bottom (like most)
• Used 100x leverage ( up to this point )
• There was no system — only emotions

Result: a debt of 8 million, depression, and the understanding that what is needed is not strategy, but discipline.

Why Most People Don't Earn: It's Not About Technique

People think that an ideal strategy is needed. In fact, the problem is simpler:

70% of losses occur not due to a faulty system, but because people do not follow it.

In my head, it sounds:

• “Stop-loss? But it could bounce back!” → Result: -50% of the account
• “Target 30%? But it can grow to 100%!” → Result: -20% instead of +30%
• “Today is too volatile, I won't trade” → Missed 10x opportunity

My system: monthly MACD + 60-day MA ( works in bear and bull )

Essence: catch rising trends over the long term, enter on pullbacks.

Step 1: Coin Selection

• We take the top 50 by growth over 11 days
• Excluding: if it has dropped for 3+ days in a row = a major player has left, you missed it.

Step 2: Trend Confirmation ( Monthly MACD )

• Opened the monthly chart
• Waiting for the golden cross (DIF to cross DEA)
• This means: long-term trend upwards, the coin could provide 200-500%.

Step 3: Entry ( daily chart )

• Switching to the daily chart
• We are waiting for the price to return to the 60-day moving average
• Volume up = buy signal

Step 4: Fixation ( this is the main )

Sale:

1. +30% → we sell 1/3 of the position
2. +50% → we sell another 1/3
3. We hold the balance as long as the price is above the 60MA.

Stop-loss (critical point):

• If the price falls below the 60MA the next day → we exit completely
• Without hesitation, without hope

Why This Works: Mathematics Beats Emotions

The R:R ratio ( income:risk ) is the main indicator.

Examples:

• 2:1 → 40% wins are needed to be in profit
• 3:1 → need 30% wins
• 5:1 → need 20% wins

My numbers: 30 trades per month, 33% wins (10 in profit, 20 in loss), 5:1 ratio

• 20 losses × −$200 = −$4000
• 10 profitable × +$1000 = +$10,000
• Result: +$6000 per month on a $20,000 account

No one predicts 100% wins. But if your “loss:profit” ratio is greater than 1:1, you are guaranteed to be in profit even with 30% accuracy.

Where thousands of traders lose money: psychology

Problem 1: Closing profits too early

• Enters +5% → already getting nervous
• Closes the position for $200, while it could have yielded $2000
• But holds losing positions for a long time

Conclusion: If you take profits early and let losses run late — you are losing.

Problem 2: They don't believe the strategy

• Developed a system
• The first 3 losses in a row → panic
• They are changing strategy and starting to improvise.
• Instead, it was necessary to continue, because the 10th deal would have given 5x

Problem 3: FOMO on volatility

• The market has fallen by 20% → they think this is the end
• Selling in panic
• Recovery in 4 days, not participating in the bounce.

Practical Tips from 10 Years in Crypto

1. Do not trade 10 coins at the same time

• Focus on 1-2 at most
• Otherwise, you miss the analysis and work on intuition.

2. Don't invest everything at once

• If you want 10 BTC: buy 2 BTC 5 times over several days
• Less risk, less FOMO

3. Set a goal and fix it

• “I will earn 20% and sell” — don't be greedy
• Use take-profit and stop-loss orders ( to prevent emotions from making decisions )

4. Do not act on volatility

• A sharp rise/fall of 15%+ = don't think, just watch
• Complex decisions are made in calmness

5. Bitcoin = trend leader

• If BTC drops by 5% = altcoins usually drop even more
• If USDT is rising, BTC is falling (people are withdrawing to stable)

6. American trading session (17:00 UTC) — danger zone

• Sharp candles usually happen here
• If you are a beginner - do not trade at this time

My current approach (8 digits of the portfolio)

1. 50% for long-term hold (BTC, ETH)
2. 30% for short-term trading (my system with 60MA)
3. 20% in speculation (memes, hype tokens) — I consider this a loss initially

When I trade on 100x leverage from one account:

• Fixed capital: $300 I lose at most
• First deal: micro-position ($5-10), to keep the psyche stable
• Only after profit: I increase my position
• Flexible stop-loss: adjusting according to the market

This allows me to be calm and not fear losses ( because they are predicted ).

Final Formula: At What Moment You Will Win

Success = (Win rate × Average profit) − (Loss rate × Average loss)

It's not about guessing the direction. It's about:

• Loss was controlled (stop-loss)
• Profit was >2x loss (R:R) ratio
• You executed the system, despite the emotions

If you do this 30 times a month, even with 33% accuracy, you will earn more than you lose.

Main point: stop thinking that you need a perfect strategy. You need a cheap, boring system that you can follow even when you are depressed. And most importantly — execute it.

Time waits for no one. Start small, but start.