#Gate广场圣诞送温暖 Worst-case scenario;

Have you forgotten about ETH at 1500 in April? The fundamentals of ETH now aren’t much better than in 2022—on-chain daily active addresses and TVL haven’t improved much, and gas revenue is much lower. This round for ETH might end up being like last round’s LTC.

LTC in 2021 just managed to break through the previous all-time high of $400 from 2017, then in the bear market fell back down to just above the last cycle’s low ($40). This round’s high was $140, still 65% below the 2021 all-time high.

If that’s the case, ETH at 1500 is very possible. Remember, even in April 2025, which should be a bull cycle, ETH dropped to 1400. ETH’s 365-day average price is around 3000, so a 50% drop is very likely; dropping below 1000 in a bear market wouldn’t be surprising.

In the next bull market cycle in 2029, the highest ETH might go is 2000-3000, just like LTC, unable to break through the 2025 high of 4950. Many people hope it’ll break 5000 in the next cycle, but they may be disappointed again, just like LTC holders who are still waiting for $400. Right now, it looks less and less likely.