This week the market will face a dual heavy impact: the expectation of the end of the US shutdown materializes, combined with the debut of the first major US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data after the shutdown, two major variables are bound to trigger significant market fluctuations.

Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum are deeply trapped in a range of fluctuations, essentially a scenario where the main players are frantically seizing liquidity. At this moment, the optimal solution is to strictly control risks—regardless of whether it rises or falls, survival and maintaining enough chips are the priorities, so that one can remain calm during declines and untroubled during increases, firmly grasping the initiative.
From a technical perspective, the third wave of the upward trend for Bitcoin at the weekly level continues strongly, with the 96500 level as a core node that has not been effectively broken down. The upward pattern on the weekly chart remains intact, and the probability of breaking through historical highs is still high; the rebound at the 4-hour level has not yet ended, and Monday's strong rally has opened up rebound space. Based on volume and structure, the target is aimed at the upper range of 107000-108000.
Recently, many friends have urged for more analysis, which shows that in the face of the fluctuating market, most people are anxious and confused, desperately needing clear directional guidance. Looking back at the recent operational rhythm: when Bitcoin retraced near the 100,000 mark, I decisively closed the short position around 110,000, clearly indicating "Only go long if it breaks below 100,000, do not short," anticipating that a 4-hour rebound could start at any time; over the weekend, I also emphasized "Seize the opportunity to go long, a major rebound is approaching" — the current market trend completely confirms the previous judgment.
The current operational strategy remains clear, focusing primarily on positioning long positions during pullbacks. The 4-hour level is experiencing a healthy rebound, with a target visible at 110,000; however, the rise will not be smooth sailing, and wealth belongs only to the few who can withstand the test. Before the main upward wave begins, the main force will eliminate most impatient investors through repeated washing and range fluctuations.
#今日你看涨还是看跌？
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