#美国政府停运 Tonight's Trend Analysis:

From the hourly chart, Ethereum is still oscillating within the price channel. According to Fibonacci calculations, the 1:1 upward target has been achieved. Can it aim for 1.618? The key depends on whether it can break through the top of the channel and stabilize above the threshold of 3647. If it stabilizes, then 3830 will have a chance.

If adjustments are to be made, first check if the neckline at 3584 can hold. If this level is breached, the downward movement will be much smoother, then keep an eye on the support levels at 3535 and 3500. If 3584 holds, it is likely to oscillate between 3584 and 3647, waiting for the US stock market to open to determine the direction.

👁️ Pay attention to the volume coordination in operations:
If the two-piece volume breaks 3627, you can follow up with a long position on the right side. If the volume at 3597 is lost, then consider following up with a short position. Remember to set a stop loss.

The hourly line has stabilized at 3625, looking up to 3683-3731; if it can't hold 3625, it won't mean much. The 4-hour line broke 3585, with a target of 3522-3482. If it breaks and can't recover, it needs to pull back to 3522 to confirm support.

Looking at a longer timeframe—there's a preliminary shape of a head and shoulders top on the 3-day chart. If it can break above 3921, this pattern will be invalidated. However, if it cannot break through, it could drop below the previous low of 3056, making a deep retracement to 2367 plausible. After hitting 2367, forming a right shoulder would also make sense. Of course, the pattern is not completed yet; this is just a prediction, and having a mental preparation in advance is better than panicking later.

In this way, pay attention to the volume-price combination at key points.