The movement of ETH on Saturday confirmed my previous judgment - it indeed showed a downward movement in the retracement channel. To be honest, this situation is a bit awkward.

The previously mentioned range of 3200-3470 initially had an operational space of 270 points, but the worst situation we feared has occurred: narrow fluctuations. The position at 3420 has already fallen below, and it is now in a frustrating state of neither going up nor down.

Why is it falling? The market's downward movement doesn't really require any special reason; gravity itself is the trend. Moreover, during the weekend, with robots controlling the market and poor liquidity, sideways movement or downward movement is the norm. Unless a black swan event occurs, it is unlikely that there will be a sudden surge to liquidate short positions.

From a macro perspective, the issue of the U.S. government shutdown has remained unresolved. The Senate's voting results in the early hours were not as expected, and the temporary funding bill is still under negotiation. This uncertainty directly affects market sentiment, and the short-term decline is a typical manifestation driven by emotions.

There is basically no positive news in the short term. The Senate is still working overtime to discuss over the weekend, but the market reaction has been very clear — we continue to wait for the motion to restore government operations to pass, which may still take time.

Let's talk about how to look at the next steps:
The weekend is likely to maintain a fluctuating downward movement, and the large range remains the same; the bottom at 3200 will not be easily broken. My judgment is that from tonight until before Monday, it may dip to around 3300 and stabilize.

But the weekend is really not suitable for building a heavy position. Let's talk about it later.