This morning while watching the market, I almost spat out my coffee—Bitcoin plummeted 1200 points in just an hour, breaking through the 42000 barrier with ease; Ethereum fared even worse, with the 2200 support collapsing like a house of cards, after holding steady for more than half a month. The US stock market wasn't doing much better, with the Nasdaq dropping 2.3% at the open, TSL falling over 4%, and Nvidia also unable to hold up, dropping 3.7%. The group chat exploded—"Should we stop loss?" "Just bought the dip and got buried, is the Bear Market coming early?" Various panic emotions were flying around, and some people were already staring at the close all positions button with shaky hands.

That said, I've been reminding everyone to "be cautious of liquidity turning points" during this period. The recent plummet in the correlation between coins and stocks actually had early signs and can't really be considered a black swan event. If you understand the two underlying logics, you won't be led by market emotions, and you might even find a buy the dip opportunity.

First, let's talk about the first key point: the U.S. Treasury has been crazily "bleeding" recently. Their TGA account was almost at the bottom, with a balance of less than 50 billion dollars at one point. To fill this huge gap, the U.S. government not only stopped the previous operations of injecting liquidity into the market but also urgently sold off 163 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds to recover cash—this operation is like opening a super pump in the market, directly siphoning off hundreds of billions in liquidity.

Cryptocurrencies and tech stocks are essentially bubbles built on incremental capital. Now, the money has been siphoned off to fill the debt black hole, and once the "capital siphon" is activated, these high-risk assets naturally become the hardest hit. The market is not pessimistic about the long term; it's just that the short term has been drained.